Investor Presentaiton
Page 26
Key Modelling Aspects
ECL calculation: 12-month and Lifetime LGD
Segmentation
Only default population for
estimation
Identification of population
sub-segments where
different models can be
developed per segment
(e.g. Secured/Unsecured,
Modified/Non Modified
exposures).
LGD Estimation
The two main parameters are:
Loss Given Loss, which for
secured exposures is an
estimate of collateral
liquidation, while for
unsecured exposures,
estimation is performed via
cash payments of non-
cured exposures.
Cure Rate based on an
estimated workout period,
where segmentation or
behavioural models are
typically developed.
Macroeconomic
Adjustment
Factors for secured
lending include house
prices, CRE prices,
Typical macro economic
factors for cure rate and
unsecured lending.
Indicative Data Needed
Collateral information:
<
NPL facilities/Settlements
CF Records
Write-off's
Deem Write-off
Post-default payment behaviour
Time to recovery
Cash recoveries
Haircut
18%
Time-to-default
16%
1
LGD
Loss given loss
14%
Time to
liquidation
12%
HPI
2
Cure rate
Costs
Sep-15
Jan-16
SLFRS9 LGD term structure
$!!!
What is not Compliant
Using regulatory LGD values without analyzing whether
adjustments are required
Amortizing
Exposure (Linear)
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18 |
Sep-18
Jan-19 |
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
EYView entire presentation