2022 Full Year Results Q&A
2022 Full Year Results Q&A
Thursday, 23rd February 2023
Duncan Wanblad: I am not sure that it would be 13Mtpa version, but it would certainly, at
the very least, be the 5Mtpa at that point.
Danielle Chigumira: Thinking about it from the marketing perspective, you are speaking
about up to 5Mtpa in 2030. What would you need to see in terms of feedback from crop
studies and so on to have confidence in that 5Mtpa, and then ultimately to the 13Mtpa?
Because the commentary that you make around the value of the product and the fairly slow
ramp-up, there seems to be a bit of inconsistency in that. How do I think about that?
Duncan Wanblad: That is very much a market development strategy that is coming to play
here. We could put quite a lot of this product into the market relatively early on, just simply
on the substitution basis. But I think it will be really hard at that point to start building the
premium that should be associated with this product. We have to let it earn its stripes in the
market. The one thing that the farmer really wants to know and understand is that this is not
going to have any detrimental effect to the way that he runs the farm today. It is very
important that they get real-life opportunity, not just crop trials and external bodies with
whom we work with, who are providing a lot of this information today. Then they learn and
they experience the yield benefits and so on. And we can build into it on that basis. This is a
very deliberate strategy and the pace of uptake of that might be different in different parts of
the world for all sorts of reasons. And that is why we say 'up to' but we will get there.
Sylvain Brunet (BNP Paribas Exane): Why has the discount rate changed compared to
when the acquisition took place in 2020?
Stephen Pearce: The discount rate has not changed. We use the same discount rate in the
acquisition model as we have in this model. But remember, they are two fundamentally
different projects, in terms of what we are building the time, scale, progress, pre-
investment.
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The thing I would also encourage you to think about, this is very different to a normal mine
Quellaveco is probably a good example, where you have got a relatively simple mine with
more complex processing and logistics piece. Whereas this project is all about the pre-
investment in the infrastructure with very simple processing and logistics. It is totally a flip
around to how you would normally think about it.
And in terms of the pre-investment that you need to make, I would also liken it a little bit to,
a greenfield iron ore mine, where the building of the mine is actually relatively simple, but the
investment in the rail and the port infrastructure is nailed to the ground upfront and you get
one chance to get that right - yes, you can expand them later, but you get one chance to
invest in that and scale it and get the efficiencies right. This is almost an identical scenario
here.
Sylvain Brunet: Could you help us understand the difference between the challenges that
Kolomela is experiencing versus Sishen. The last few years, Kumba was actually a good
example of a good recovery, and it looks like things have become more difficult.
On Botswana, just to understand what is being discussed at the moment. Is it purely fiscal
terms? Have you agreed on some of the items already, and why are you sure that 2023
should be the timeline for the final agreement?
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