Debt Mutual Fund Strategy

5 10 9 8 7 CPI Inflation (YOY) Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Confidential/Restricted Apr-21 May-21 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 US 10-Yr Bond Yield (%) Jan 31, 2020 Mar 04, 2020 Apr 05, 2020 Jun 09, 2020 Jul 14, 2020 May 07, 2020 Aug 16, 2020 Sep 17, 2020 Oct 21, 2020 Nov 23, 2020 Dec 27, 2020 Jan 29, 2021 Mar 03, 2021 2021 Apr 04, 2021 May 05, Jun 07, 2021 2021 Jul 09, 2021 Aug 12, Sep 14, 2021 Oct 17, 2021 Nov 17, 2021 Dec19, 2021 Jan 21, 2022 Feb 24, 2022 Mar 28, 2022 Apr 29, 2022 Jun 01, 2022 Jul 05, 2022 Aug 05, 2022 Sep 07, 2022 Oct 10, 2022 US 10-Yr Bond Yield (%) CPI based Inflation (YoY %) in US remained elevated Source: Bloomberg Classification - Restricted US Interest rates continue to rise as Inflation and other key macro data remains strong, while steady fundamentals, expectations of Fed Pivot and bottom fishing led to strong rally in the US markets 5.00 4.50 4.00 US Fed Interest Rate Vs US Bond Yield % 4.49 No. of unemployed persons per job opening, seasonally adjusted is at 0.5 whereas, unemployment rate stands at 3.5%. Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 US Fed Rate (%) US's GDP on annualised basis has improved in Q3CY23 after declining in the previous quarter Quarterly GDP Growth % (Annualised) 4.05 40.0 33.4 30.0 3.25 20.0 10.0 4.3 6.4 6.7 6.9 2.3 0.0 -1.6 -0.9 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -31.4 16.0 14.0 12.0 2.6 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Q2CY20 20.0% 8.3 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% % Change -5.0% -10.0% -8.6% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -30.0% Q3CY20 14.0% Q4CY20 Q1CY21 Q2CY21 Q3CY21 Q4CY21 Performance of US Equity Market 3.9% 8.0% -29.1% -35.0% USA (Dow jones) USA (NASDAQ) 25 USA (S&P 500) ■1 Year Oct-22 Source: Bloomberg -15.9% HDFC BANK RESEARCH Classification - Restricted Q1CY22 Q2CY22 Q3CY22 01-03-20 20 01-05-20 20 01-07-20 20 61.1 60.7 58.4 58.3 57.7 Manufacturing PMI 45 칡gggg 40 35 30 65 60 55 50 01-09-2020 01-11-20 20 01-01-2021 01-03-2021 01-05-2021 Umemployment Rate in the US 01-07-2021 01-09-2021 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Manufacturing PMI witnessing expansion on back of demand improvement 57.3 55.5 01-11-2021 01-01-2022 01-03-2022 01-05-2022 01-07-2022 01-09-2022 58.8 59.2 57.0 52.7 52.2 51.5 52.0 Aug'21 Sept'21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 HDFC BANK We understand your world Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Source: Bloomberg Sept 3.5

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