COVID-19 Business Impact Presentation
Macroeconomic Scenarios
Select Macroeconomic Variables that Impact Expected Credit Loss Calculations
Alternative Scenario - Alternative Scenario - Alternative Scenario -
Base Case Scenario
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Severe Pessimistic
As at April 30, 2020
As at
April 30,
2020
As at
October 31,
2019
As at
April 30,
2020
As at
October 31,
2019
As at
April 30,
2020
As at
October 31,
2019
As at
April 30,
2020
As at
October 31,
2019
Canada
Real GDP growth, y/y % change
Unemployment rate, average %
-9.5
1.9
11.7
5.8
189
-7.9
2.4
-14.1
11.2
5.6
14.3
26
1.3
-19.1
n/a
6.1
16.6
n/a
US
Real GDP growth, y/y % change
Unemployment rate, average %
-6.3
1.8
-4.6
2.3
-9.9
1.4
-14.9
n/a
11.1
3.9
10.7
3.7
13.1
4.0
15.1
n/a
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
27
54
28
56
99
23
53
20
n/a
Source: Scotiabank Economics.
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