Latvia Economic and Fiscal Outlook
GLOBAL ENERGY AND FOOD PRESSURES PUSH UP INFLATION
Larger share of food and energy in consumption basket and quicker pass-through to consumer prices elevates inflation; no
material harm on competitiveness expected in medium term
Inflation (HICP; year on year; %) and contribution to changes (percentage
points)
Consumer Price Index forecast by
80
60
Energy and food prices in Latvia (LV) and Euro Area (EA)
(year on year; %)
European Commission:
2022 15.5%
2023 6.0%
20
Wages
Oil
Global food
15
10
10
5
Natural gas
Electricity
Heating energy
Solid fuels
Other factor
Headline inflation
0
S
01.01.2005
01.01.2006
01.01.2007
01.01.2008
01.01.2009
01.01.2010
01.01.2011
01.01.2012
01.01.2013
01.01.2014
01.01.2015
01.01.2016
21 Source: Eurostat; Latvijas Banka staff estimation.
01.01.2017
01.01.2018
01.01.2019
01.01.2020
01.01.2021
70
0
60
60
50
01.01.2022
01.01.2023
01.01.2024
40
40
30
20
20
10
10
0
2021M08
2021M09
2021M10
2021M11
2021M12
2022M01
"
2022M02
2022M03
"
2022M04
- EA_Food
EA_Administered prices
⚫LV_Energy
EA_Energy
LV_Food
LV_Administered prices
2022M05
2022M06
2022M07
Source: Eurostat.View entire presentation