Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck slide image

Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck

Intro Net Asset Value 30 June 2022 (as disclosed on p. 12), at a significant premium to the peer group, and clearly takes the forward outlook into account. The multiple declines to a level more in line with key peers looking further out into the future, as Oda is expected to grow at a significantly higher rate fuelled by its geographical expansion. The valuation also reflects the exceptional operational efficiency of the company's proprietary fulfilment solution. The fair value of Kinnevik's 11 percent shareholding in Vivino amounts to SEK 625m, effectively flat in the quarter save for currency tailwinds. The valuation is mainly based on forward-looking GMV multiples of a peer group of global online marketplaces with high user engagement such as Etsy (ETSY). Our assessed value of the company remains at an unchanged and relatively material discount to the peer group's average multiple. As our holding benefits from downside protection from the preferential terms of our investment in the company's latest equity fundraise, the fair value of our investment remains largely unchanged. The fair value of Kinnevik's 5 percent shareholding in Jobandtalent amounts to SEK 1,098m, effectively flat in the quarter. The valuation is based on near-term forward-looking revenue multiples of a peer group consisting of human capital-focused businesses such as Fiverr (FVRR) and Upwork (UPWK), with reference also drawn to marketplaces such as Airbnb (ABNB) and Uber (UBER). The peer group's average NTM revenue multiple remained unchanged in the third quarter, and the company remains valued at a premium to the peer group, albeit a decreasing one, considering its significantly stronger revenue growth relative to the peer group constituents while maintaining comparable margins. Our holding benefits from downside protection from the preferential terms of our investment in the company's fundraise in the fourth quarter of 2021, causing an effectively unchanged fair value in spite of reflecting considerable multiple contraction in our underlying valuation assessment over the last few quarters. SOFTWARE Our Software businesses are typically benchmarked against both recur- ring revenue SaaS businesses such as Atlassian (TEAM) and Salesforce (CRM), and more transactional software businesses like Twilio (TWLO) and Shopify (SHOP). The companies in our peer sets typically grew KINNEVIK Interim Report Q3 2022 Portfolio Overview Sustainability revenue at around 35 percent in 2021 with gross margins of 80 percent, compared to our businesses which typically are growing more than four times faster with almost comparable gross margins. For this reason, we also consider valuations of "hyper growth" peers comprising the fastest growing listed software companies as their financial profile more closely resembles our investees. This peer set typically exhibits growth of over 50 percent and trades at an average revenue multiple more than twice as high as the overall software level on average. The fair value of Kinnevik's 8 percent shareholding in Cedar amounts to SEK 2,023m, down around 2 percent in the quarter. The valuation reflects a decreased premium to the peer group's average NTM revenue multiple, which has contracted by around 12 percent in the quarter, to reflect the market's increased relative valuation of profitability. Our fair value is supported by continued strong revenue growth and the Swedish krona's depreciation against the dollar. The company is valued in line with the richest valued companies in its peer group, corresponding to a mate- rial premium to the peer group average to reflect Cedar's considerably stronger growth rate. In relation to this average, the valuation normalizes materially twelve months out, courtesy of the company's strong outlook. The fair value of Kinnevik's 14 percent shareholding in Pleo amounts to SEK 3,719m, down around 17 percent from last quarter's valuation. The write-down reflects a decreased premium to the peer group's average NTM revenue multiple, which itself has contracted by around 1 percent in the quarter, to reflect the market's increased relative valuation of profit- ability. The valuation still implies a significant premium to the peer group on an NTM basis, but normalizes over the coming 12 months in relation to the best-in-class companies in the peer group as Pleo is expected to grow at a significantly faster pace. The fair value of Kinnevik's 15 percent shareholding in TravelPerk amounts to SEK 2,120m, effectively flat in terms of underlying valuation in the quarter but gaining 10 percent mainly from a weakening Swedish krona. The assessed valuation is fairly in line with where the company raised new financing in late December 2021, and where smaller secondary transactions took place during the second and third quarters, in which Kinnevik participated. The resilience of the carrying value of our TravelPerk investment reflects the company's superior performance benefiting from Financial Statements Other a sharp rebound in travel as well as continued strong acquisition of new clients more than offsetting an approximate 40 percent decline in the NTM revenue multiple during the first three quarters of 2022. CONSUMER FINANCE Our Consumer Finance businesses are typically benchmarked against a peer set of digital wealth managers such as Avanza (AZA.ST) and Nordnet (SAVE.ST), and consumer subscription businesses such as Match Group (MTCH) and Netflix (NFLX). On average, the companies in the broader composite peer set grew revenue by 40 percent in 2021 with gross mar- gins above 50 percent, largely in line with our investments in the sector. The fair value of Kinnevik's 13 percent shareholding in Betterment amounts to SEK 1,532m. The peer group's average NTM revenue multiple was virtually flat in the third quarter and we continue to value Betterment at an unchanged 10 percent premium to the peer group average in con- sideration of the company's relatively stronger growth trajectory. Per the end of August, the company's assets under management amounted to around USD 30.8bn. While the revenue mix is becoming more diversified, Betterment's revenues are still primarily derived from fees on these assets under management and therefore remain in part correlated with the development of the US and global stock market. Our revenue outlook has been adjusted downwards to take the ongoing drawdown in equity markets into account. At the current valuation level, the carrying value of our investment is positively affected by liquidation preferences, causing an unchanged fair value in USD terms and an increasing fair value in SEK terms due to currency tailwinds. The fair value of Kinnevik's 21 percent shareholding in Monese amounts to SEK 842m, up 60 percent in the quarter, and is at a not immaterial discount to the valuation where the company raised new capital at during the third quarter. The discount partly stems from the terms at which this capital was raised at from a strategic investor. The peer group's average NTM revenue multiple remained effectively flat in the quarter. Our valu- ation means valuing the company at a premium to its peer group rather than at a discount as in the previous quarter - reflective of the company's strengthened financial position and the strategic value of the investor that led the investment in the company's recent fundraise. 33
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