Q2-18 Financial Results Highlights
Appendix
Strategy
Emirates NBD Profile
Operating Environment
Financial & Operating Performance |
M bpd
3.2
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
Oil production in KSA remained well below its OPEC targets at the
end of April. The UAE is also showing compliance with its OPEC
target. We expect KSA and the UAE will likely increase production
going forward consistent with the latest OPEC agreement to offset
expected decline in Iranian exports
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the UAE
declined to 55.8 in July from 57.1 in June, signalling the slowest
rate of growth in the non-oil private sector in three months
Oil Price and UAE oil production
UAE Oil Production (LHS)
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
ICE Brent (RHS)
60
125
58
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17-
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
0
25
25
75
50
100
USD per barrel
52
52
54
56
Real GDP growth forecasts
Emirates NBD
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
S. Arabia
2.7
3.7
4.1
1.7
-0.7
1.5
UAE
4.7
3.3
3.8
3.0
1.5
2.2
Qatar
4.0
3.5
3.3
2.0
1.2
3.4
Kuwait
1.1
0.5
0.6
3.5
-2.9
1.8
Oman
4.4
2.5
4.7
5.4
1.0
2.6
Bahrain
5.4
4.4
2.9
3.2
3.9
-2.3
GCC (average)
3.3
3.2
3.7
2.4
0.1
2.0
Egypt
2.1
2.9
4.4
4.3
4.2
5.2
Jordan
2.8
3.1
2.4
2.0
2.1
2.6
Lebanon
3.0
1.8
0.8
1.0
1.6
1.8
Tunisia
2.9
2.3
1.1
1.0
1.7
2.0
Morocco
4.4
2.7
4.5
1.2
4.0
2.7
MENA (average)
2.8
2.7
3.7
3.1
3.4
3.7
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE PMI - Non oil private sector activity
50
Jan 15 Jun 15 Nov 15 Apr 16 Sep 16 Feb 17 Jul 17 Dec 17 May 18
Source: Markit / Emirates NBD
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