Investor Presentation Fourth Quarter 2020
Forward-looking Information Variables used to estimate our Expected Credit Loss¹
Forward-Looking Information Variables
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
As at October 31, 2020
Base Case
Base Case
Upside Case
Upside Case
Downside Case
Downside Case
Canadian GDP YoY Growth
US GDP YOY Growth
1.6%
3.8%
3.6%
4.6%
0.03%
2.0%
1.7%
3.5%
3.0%
4.2%
(0.6)%
1.7%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
8.7%
6.7%
7.4%
5.9%
9.5%
8.4%
US Unemployment Rate
7.4%
4.7%
5.1%
3.5%
9.2%
7.3%
Canadian Housing Price Index Growth
2.4%
3.0%
11.2%
10.4%
(6.9)%
(0.8)%
S&P 500 Index Growth Rate
5.6%
4.8%
11.2%
7.7%
(3.5)%
(5.3)%
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
$42
$53
$51
$60
$34
$39
Forward-Looking Information Variables
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
As at July 31, 2020
Base Case
Base Case
Upside Case
Upside Case
Downside Case
Downside Case
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
(0.7)%
4.3%
0.8%
5.5%
(5.3)%
1.6%
US GDP YOY Growth
(0.4)%
4.6%
1.4%
5.4%
(5.1)%
1.1%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
9.2%
7.6%
7.9%
6.3%
10.9%
9.4%
US Unemployment Rate
8.0%
5.7%
6.6%
4.8%
12.2%
10.3%
Canadian Housing Price Index Growth
(0.3)%
1.8%
5.5%
6.5%
(9.4)%
(2.9)%
S&P 500 Index Growth Rate
4.1%
4.8%
9.8%
8.7%
(13.1)%
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
$39
$48
$48
$65
$32
(11.8)%
$39
CIBC
1 See pages 142 and 143 of 2020 Annual Report for further details.
Fourth Quarter, 2020
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