Investor Presentaiton
ELDERS LIMITED
ABARES September 2023 Market Outlook
Strong livestock volume outlook moderated by subdued prices and weaker crop outlook
•
WOOL
OUTLOOK
Beef and Veal¹
Average saleyard prices (c/kg)
Sheep¹
Wool1
Winter Cropping²
-15.5%
Average saleyard prices (c/kg)
-23.4%
Eastern Market Indicator (c/kg)
-4.2%
Area planted ('000 ha)
Summer Cropping²
Area planted ('000 ha)
-2.5%
-6.4%
605
785
-15.3%
-14.5%
1,389
-2.0%
662
560
415
1,301
1,276
-4.1%
-15.0%
24,153
355
23,963
22,983
1,519
1,566
1,331
2021-22
2022-23 2023-24
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
2021-22
2022-23 2023-24
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Production (kt)
Production (kt)
Sheep shorn for wool production (kt)
Crop production (kt)
Crop production (kt)
+10.5%
+10.2%
+0.1%
-15.5%
-13.8%
+13.8%
2,293
+5.7%
1,878
2,015
778
823
-1.1%
-33.6%
324
328
324
678
63,222
68,079
5,516
-19.2%
5,069
45,193
4,094
2021-22
2022-23 2023-24
Moderating beef prices due to increased
supply (local and global), higher turn-off
rates and lower restocking demand
Beef production to rise 14% due to drier
conditions, lower pasture availability and
increased livestock turn-off rate
Global beef prices are expected to fall due
to increased global supply
2021-22 2022-23
2023-24
Lamb and sheep prices are expected to
remain suppressed by higher production as
drier forecasted conditions incentivise stock
turn-off
Live sheep volumes are expected to
weaken in 2023-24 due to subdued export
prices following higher global supply
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Wool production is expected to increase
driven by greater sheep shorn as margins
improve on lower shearing costs
The average wool cut per head is expected
to decline to 4.58/kg heading into 2024
owing to drier conditions
However, Sheep flock compositions are
shifting towards meat breads in the short
term as farmers chase margins
"
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Winter crop production is expected to fall
below the 10-year average due to below
average rainfall in key states
Yields are forecast to be below average
owing to drier conditions in key northern
cropping regions
Wheat and canola production set to fall
36% and 38% respectively, with barley
production down 26%
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Negative summer crop outlook as
Queensland and northern New South
Wales experienced below average rainfall
Dryland crops may be impacted by lower
soil moisture levels
Total summer crop production remains
above the long-term average, however
there is a potential for El Niño conditions
1.
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ABARES Agricultural forecasts and outlook: September edition
2.
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ABARES Australian Crop Report: September edition
34View entire presentation