FY2023 M25+ Progress: Enhancing Digital Banking
1Q FY2023: Interest Rates Move to Pre-Pandemic Levels; Moderating
Economic Outlook
Malaysia
2022
2023 (f)
Singapore
2022
Indonesia
2023 (f)
2022
2023 (f)
GDP
8.7%
4.5%
GDP
3.6%
0.8%
GDP
5.3%
5.0%
System loan
5.7%
4.8%
System loan
(2.1)%*
1.0%*
System loan
11.0%
9.5% -10.5%
OPR
2.75%
3.00%
3M SORA
3.10%
3.90%
Reference Rate
5.50%
5.75%
USD/MYR^
4.40
4.10
USD/SGD^
1.34
1.30
USD/IDR^
15,568
14,300
Inflation average
3.3%
3.0%
Inflation average
6.1%
5.6%
Inflation average
4.2%
3.7%
Economic outlook
Economic outlook
expected at 4.5%,
•
•
Economic growth
moderating from the previous year in tandem
with slower global growth and the high
inflation and interest rates environment
Growth will be supported by consumption and
investment growth, as well as positive spill
over from China's re-opening
OPR likely to be maintained at 3.00% for 2023
Banking outlook
Loan growth is anticipated to moderate
alongside slower economic growth
NIM pressure to remain arising from deposit
repricing and competition
•
•
•
Slowing economic growth at 0.8% as external-
oriented services and manufacturing sectors are
impacted by weakening external demand
Reopening sectors i.e.: hospitality, consumer-
related and construction expected to remain
resilient given better tourism and labour market
Core inflation to remain elevated. Monetary
policy may remain unchanged in 2023
Banking outlook
Moderate loan growth supported by China's re-
opening and intra-ASEAN demand
NIM likely to contract QoQ on funding cost
increase and as loan yield reaches a ceiling.
However, overall NIM should still be higher YoY
and at the highest level in the past decade
•
Economic outlook
Economic growth to remain stable supported
by steady domestic demand despite
declining exports
Inflation easing back to BI's target range (2%
to 4%) with the moderation in food and
energy prices
Bank Indonesia to keep its reference rate
steady at 5.75% in 2023
Banking outlook
•
•
NIM pressure may persist on higher funding
costs and competitive lending rates for
higher quality corporates
Profitability will be driven by lower
provisioning expense rather than PPOP
growth
^End-period
*Based on refreshed MAS disclosure of resident and non-resident lending, excluding interbank
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