FY2023 M25+ Progress: Enhancing Digital Banking slide image

FY2023 M25+ Progress: Enhancing Digital Banking

1Q FY2023: Interest Rates Move to Pre-Pandemic Levels; Moderating Economic Outlook Malaysia 2022 2023 (f) Singapore 2022 Indonesia 2023 (f) 2022 2023 (f) GDP 8.7% 4.5% GDP 3.6% 0.8% GDP 5.3% 5.0% System loan 5.7% 4.8% System loan (2.1)%* 1.0%* System loan 11.0% 9.5% -10.5% OPR 2.75% 3.00% 3M SORA 3.10% 3.90% Reference Rate 5.50% 5.75% USD/MYR^ 4.40 4.10 USD/SGD^ 1.34 1.30 USD/IDR^ 15,568 14,300 Inflation average 3.3% 3.0% Inflation average 6.1% 5.6% Inflation average 4.2% 3.7% Economic outlook Economic outlook expected at 4.5%, • • Economic growth moderating from the previous year in tandem with slower global growth and the high inflation and interest rates environment Growth will be supported by consumption and investment growth, as well as positive spill over from China's re-opening OPR likely to be maintained at 3.00% for 2023 Banking outlook Loan growth is anticipated to moderate alongside slower economic growth NIM pressure to remain arising from deposit repricing and competition • • • Slowing economic growth at 0.8% as external- oriented services and manufacturing sectors are impacted by weakening external demand Reopening sectors i.e.: hospitality, consumer- related and construction expected to remain resilient given better tourism and labour market Core inflation to remain elevated. Monetary policy may remain unchanged in 2023 Banking outlook Moderate loan growth supported by China's re- opening and intra-ASEAN demand NIM likely to contract QoQ on funding cost increase and as loan yield reaches a ceiling. However, overall NIM should still be higher YoY and at the highest level in the past decade • Economic outlook Economic growth to remain stable supported by steady domestic demand despite declining exports Inflation easing back to BI's target range (2% to 4%) with the moderation in food and energy prices Bank Indonesia to keep its reference rate steady at 5.75% in 2023 Banking outlook • • NIM pressure may persist on higher funding costs and competitive lending rates for higher quality corporates Profitability will be driven by lower provisioning expense rather than PPOP growth ^End-period *Based on refreshed MAS disclosure of resident and non-resident lending, excluding interbank 16
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