Investor Contacts and Regular Meetings Schedule slide image

Investor Contacts and Regular Meetings Schedule

Bank of Russia RUSSIAN MACRO UPDATE The Central Bank of the Russian Federation 22 22 MONETARY POLICY Gradual transition from moderately tight to neutral monetary policy Inflation and inflation expectations • . Annual inflation remains low and in general corresponds to the Bank of Russia's expectations, but showed mixed dynamics for main consumer basket products (petrol ↑, food goods ↓) Inflation expectations of households and businesses saw a slight increase, which is primarily related to higher petrol prices The weakening of the ruble exchange rate in April moderately affects the dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations Planned tax revisions will make about a 1 percentage point contribution to inflation Monetary Conditions are close to neutral Economic activity • Industrial and investment activity improved after a temporary slowdown in March 2018 Medium-term outlook on economic growth is at large the same, but might be further updated to reflect a detailed estimate of influence of the set of the proposed fiscal . . measures Inflation risks The main risks: (1) tax policy measures (the risk has increased), (2) external factors. - Moderate risks – estimates are mostly unchanged: (3) consumer and oil price volatility, (4) wage movements, (5) possible changes in consumer behavior. Decision as of June 15, 2018 The Bank of Russia keeps the key rate at 7.25% p.a. Signal the Bank of Russia will explore the necessity of key rate changes by assessing inflation risks, inflation dynamics and economic developments against the forecast […] The monetary policy stance needs to remain somewhat tight to limit the scale of secondary effects of fiscal measures and to maintain the annual consumer prices growth rate around 4%.
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