Investor Contacts and Regular Meetings Schedule
Bank of Russia
RUSSIAN MACRO UPDATE
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
22
22
MONETARY POLICY
Gradual transition from moderately tight to neutral monetary policy
Inflation and inflation expectations
•
.
Annual inflation remains low and in general corresponds to the Bank of Russia's
expectations, but showed mixed dynamics for main consumer basket products (petrol
↑, food goods ↓)
Inflation expectations of households and businesses saw a slight increase, which
is primarily related to higher petrol prices
The weakening of the ruble exchange rate in April moderately affects the dynamics of
inflation and inflation expectations
Planned tax revisions will make about a 1 percentage point contribution to inflation
Monetary Conditions are close to neutral
Economic activity
• Industrial and investment activity improved after a temporary slowdown in March 2018
Medium-term outlook on economic growth is at large the same, but might be further
updated to reflect a detailed estimate of influence of the set of the proposed fiscal
.
.
measures
Inflation risks
The main risks: (1) tax policy measures (the risk has increased), (2) external factors.
-
Moderate risks – estimates are mostly unchanged: (3) consumer and oil price volatility,
(4) wage movements, (5) possible changes in consumer behavior.
Decision
as of June 15, 2018
The Bank of Russia
keeps the key rate
at 7.25% p.a.
Signal
the Bank of Russia will explore
the necessity of key rate changes
by assessing inflation risks,
inflation dynamics and economic
developments against the
forecast
[…]
The monetary policy stance
needs to remain somewhat tight
to limit the scale of secondary
effects of fiscal measures and to
maintain the annual
consumer prices growth rate
around 4%.View entire presentation