4Q and FY 2023 Investor Presentation
Default Rates Expected to Decline by Year-end¹
Default Rates for Global Speculative-Grade
Corporate Rated Issuance
Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rates by
Baseline
- Optimistic
14%
12%
Region²
Moderately Pessimistic
Severely Pessimistic
10%
11.8%
8%
Global
US
-Europe
10%
6%
8%
7.4%
6%
4.1% global historical average¹
4%
4%
-3.6%
3.1%
2%
2%
0%
0%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2022
2024F
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
» Global speculative-grade default rate expected to reach 3.6% by year-end, slightly below long-term average as well as prior recessionary levels
1. Moody's rated corporate global speculative grade default historical average of 4.1% from 1983 through December 31, 2022. 2024 forecast for year ended December 31, 2024. Moody's Investors Service; Default Trends - Global: January 2024
Default Report, February 14, 2024.
2.
Statistics are based on issuer-weighted data.
Moody's |
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4Q and FY 2023 Investor Presentation 40View entire presentation