2022 State Budget and Fiscal Incentives Presentation
National Economic Recovery Expected to Continue
Strong GDP Growth¹
7.07
3.51
%
QoQ
- YoY
8.0
6.0
4.0
5.05
3.83
2.0
8.27
3.74.31
4.01
3.14
4.01
4.21
4.20
3.19
3.09
3.06
B.31
0.04
1.55
0.0
(2.07)
(1.73)
-2.0
30.36)
(0.16)
(1.81 (0.30)
(1.70.41)
(1.69)
(0.52)
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
Q3 Q1 Q3
Q3
Q1 Q3
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Favourable GDP Growth Compared to Peers²
(1.742.41) (0.42 0.96)
(419)
10.00
% yoy
5.00
9.00
6.30
5.60
4.40
3.80
0.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-5.00
• Indonesia's economy maintained positive growth in the third quarter of 2021 despite
moderating in response to a surge of the highly contagious Delta variant of
coronavirus. The national economy grew 3.51% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2021,
down from 7.07% (yoy) in the previous period. Economic growth was primarily
supported by exports in line with persistently solid demand in Indonesia's trading
partner countries. Meanwhile, domestic demand moderated as a corollary of mobility
restrictions introduced to overcome the Delta variant. Indonesia's main economic
sectors maintained positive momentum, despite contractions felt by sectors relating to
public mobility. Moving forward, Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen
coordination with the Government and other relevant authorities to accelerate
economic growth, including monetary-fiscal policy coordination, reopening priority
sectors, increasing exports as well as economic and financial inclusion.
• In terms of spending, all GDP components maintained lower growth compared with
conditions in the previous period. Household consumption expanded 1.03% (yoy),
down from 5.96% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2021 due to public mobility
restrictions in several regions of Indonesia. Investment moderated to 3.74% (yoy),
bolstered by building investment, and government consumption grew 0.66% (yoy) in
line with the expenditure reallocation to accelerate the national economic recovery
program and contain the Delta variant. Meanwhile, exports continued to perform well
on the back of strong global demand, growing 29.16% (yoy) in the reporting period.
Imports, on the other hand, also grew 30.11% (yoy) in the Q3 of 2021.
• Indonesia's major economic sectors, namely the Manufacturing Industry, Trade and
Mining, maintained positive performance. In contrast, however, sectors relating to
mobility, such as Accommodation and Food Service Activities, as well as Transportation
and Storage, experienced contractions. Spatially, positive national economic
performance was supported by nearly all regions,
2022 Growth Projection *)
-10.00
Bulgaria
Indonesia
Colombia
Philippines
India
-15.00
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption
Source: World Economic Outlook Database - October 2021; * indicates estimated figure
2.
*) Consensus Forecast number will be given later
Institutions
GDP growth
2022 Budget
Bank Indonesia
5.2
4.7-5.5
IMF (WEO, Jan 2022)
5.6
World Bank (GEP, Jan 2022)
5.2
ADB (ADO, Dec 2021)
5.0
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