Canadian Personal Banking Digital Transformation
Forward-looking Information Variables used to estimate our Expected Credit Loss¹
Forward-Looking Information Variables
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
As at July 31, 2020
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
Base Case
Base Case
Upside Case
Upside Case
Downside Case
Downside Case
(0.7)%
4.3%
0.8%
5.5%
(5.3)%
1.6%
US GDP YOY Growth
(0.4)%
4.6%
1.4%
5.4%
(5.1)%
1.1%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
9.2%
7.6%
7.9%
6.3%
10.9%
9.4%
US Unemployment Rate
8.0%
5.7%
6.6%
4.8%
12.2%
10.3%
Canadian Housing Price Index Growth
S&P 500 Index Growth Rate
(0.3)%
1.8%
5.5%
6.5%
(9.4)%
(2.9)%
4.1%
4.8%
9.8%
8.7%
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
Forward-Looking Information Variables
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
$39
$48
$48
$65
(13.1)%
$32
(11.8)%
$39
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
As at April 30, 2020
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
Base Case
Base Case
(6.6)%
5.3%
Upside Case
(2.1)%
Upside Case
Downside Case
Downside Case
6.4%
(9.5)%
1.4%
US GDP YOY Growth
(6.5)%
5.5%
1.1%
7.1%
(10.4)%
1.5%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
10.9%
7.1%
8.9%
6.0%
12.8%
8.7%
US Unemployment Rate
8.9%
5.4%
6.0%
3.9%
11.3%
7.1%
Canadian Housing Price Index Growth
(3.0)%
0.8%
(0.1)%
4.3%
(5.9)%
(2.1)%
S&P 500 Index Growth Rate
(5.7)%
4.8%
10.3%
16.6%
(34.8)%
(17.1)%
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
$36
$47
$51
$67
$30
$32
CIBC
1 See page 69 of the Q3/20 Quarterly Report for further details.
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