Solar Market and Cost Analysis

PV Value Chain Global Spot Pricing Average Wafer, Cell, and Module Global Spot Price ($/Wdc) $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Cells, mono ($/Wdc) Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Bifacial modules, 210 mm, mono ($/Wdc) Polysilicon ($/kg) Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 $45 $40 $35 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 Average Polysilicon Global Spot Price ($/kg) $20 $10 Monofacial modules, mono ($/Wdc) Wafers, mono M10 ($/Wdc) • Polysilicon global spot prices began Q4 2022 around $37/kg but dropped 40% (to $22/kg) by mid-January, the lowest price in 1.5 years. Analysts were expecting lower prices as polysilicon demand decreased and production capacity increased. BloombergNEF predicts prices may stabilize at $10- $15/kg in 2023, which is on the border of what previous NREL analyses had considered sustainable. Global wafer and cell prices dropped by 40%- 50% during this period. Global module prices fell only around 10% as demand from Europe decreased but Chinese demand remained relatively strong. Source: Bloomberg NEF Solar Spot Price Index (1/13/23); Bloomberg NEF Bimonthly PV Index (12/6/22); PV Magazine (1/4/23); PV Tech (1/9/23, 1/12/23), NREL 2018 Cost Reduction Roadmap. NREL 38

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