Emirates NBD Investor Presentation H1 2021
UAE oil production and prices
UAE economy expected to grow to 1.5% in 2021
Highlights
• Emirates NBD Research expects the non-oil economy to grow by 3.5% in 2021
However, with oil production likely to rise only gradually in H2 2021, the oil sector is likely
to remain a headwind to overall GDP growth this year expected to reach 1.5%
•
•
•
Higher economic growth expected this year in all the countries that the Group operates in
UAE PMI rose to a two-year high in July as the economy continues to recover from the
pandemic crisis
• Residential real estate prices and rents in Dubai have risen in H1 2021, with larger units
seeing the biggest increases in price
•
Demand for more space due to working from home, low interest rates, higher loan-to-value
limits on mortgages and foreign demand have contributed to the rise in prices
• Global oil demand very much in recovery mode in major markets but still far from levels
seen prior to the Covid-19 pandemic
UAE GDP growth
mn b/d
3.4
3.2
6.0
% y/y growth
4.0
2.0
3.0
2.4
1.7
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
2016
2017
Source: Bloomberg, BIS, * ENBD Research forecasts
4.8
1.5
100
UAE oil output (LHS)
Brent oil (RHS)
80
3.0
60
2.8
3.2
2.6
3.0
3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
40
2.8 2.9
2.9 2.9
2.4
2.5 2.6 2.7 20
2.2
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2018
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2019
2020
2021
Residential property prices
50
% y/y growth
40
4.3
30
20
10
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
0
-10
-6.1
-20
-30
2018
2019
2020e
2021f
2022f
Jan-10 Apr-11 Jul-12 Oct-13 Jan-15 Apr-16 Jul-17 Oct-18 Jan-20 Apr-21
Economic Environment
USD / b
24
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