Financial Sector Overview
RUB per 1 USD
80
70
62.5
60
50
40
30
03.15
Source: Bank of Russia, Rosstat
Bank of Russia RUSSIAN MACRO UPDATE
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
Figure 1: Real GDP growth started to recover in 2016 (YoY, %)
8
KEY INDICATORS
Clear signs of macro stabilization across the board
Figure 2: Private consumption and investment dynamics (YoY, %)
Private consumption
Investments
15
6
4.3
9.1 7.9
3.7
10
5.2
5.5
4
2.3
1.8
5
2.0
2.3
2.0
1.5
6.8
1.6
2
0.7
0.7
1.5
0.3
5.0
2.9
0
3
1.0
1.0
1.3
0
1.9
1.0
-5
-1.8
-2
- 9.4
- 2.5
-10
- 11.2
-4
-15
2011 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
2011 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019E
Figure 3: Russian Ruble volatility remains low while in free-floating
90
Figure 4: Retail sales and real wages dynamics (YoY, %)
Real wages
Retail sales
06.15
09.15
12.15
03.16
06.16
09.16
12.16
03.17
06.17
09.17
12.17
03.18
06.18
09.18
12.18
03.19
06.19
15
10
64.3
5
0
-4.4
-5
-10
-8.4
-15
-20
12.14
04.15
08.15
12.15
04.16
08.16
12.16
04.17
08.17
12.17
04.18
08.18
12.18
04.19
1.2
1.6
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