Fertiglobe Financial Overview
Lower Chinese Exports And Higher Indian Imports Supportive Of Prices
-
-
Chinese market balances supported by:
Government measures to curb exports until at least
H2 2023 and prioritise domestic supply including
mandatory stocking requirements. This is expected to
cap 2022 exports to 2 Mt
High domestic crop prices and government
emphasizing food security is supportive of crop
expansion and robust demand in 2022 and 2023
Permanent capacity closures due to environmental
regulations and curtailments over winter-heating
season contributing to lower exports in 2022 and
beyond
Medium-term exports expected to fall to ~3 mt given
environmental policy impacts and prioritization of
energy for domestic consumption
Despite the commissioning of three world-scale plants in
India over 2017-2021, domestic production has been
relatively flat and decreased c.600 kt in 2021. Further, as
evidenced in 2022, new production is partly offset by
lower production from older, more inefficient plants.
Capacity additions in India are subject to delays and
not expected to commission in line with published
government timelines, supporting imports.
Chinese Exports Curtailed on Domestic Demand and Closures
China urea exports, Mt
8.2
6.9
4.1
13.6
13.8
9.0
Significant declines in Chinese
exports from peak levels with
further declines in 2022
5.5
5.3
4.6
4.7
2.4
~2Mt
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Indian Supply Has Declined Despite New Capacity Commissioning, and Robust Demand Supportive
of Imports Supportive of Imports
India imports, Mt
10.5
10.5
+24%
9.7
Short-term, India is expected to issue follow-up tenders
to replenish inventories, to fulfil Rabi season
requirements. Demand for Indian wheat and good
monsoons, will be supportive of urea demand through the
balance of 2022.
8.8
7.9
7.7
7.7
7.5
7.1
7.0
6.3
5.9
Further upside for Indian import demand in 2023 given
growth in crop area and subsidies favoring urea expected
to result in increased substitution from P&K
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Fertiglobe
An ADNOC and OCI Company
Source: CRU, MMFMS, China Customs, Company Information
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