Financial Overview and Niche Market Leadership
No clear upswing signal for next 12 month, long-term growth drivers remain sound
Macro headwinds expected to prevail throughout next 12 months - afterwards, back to moderate growth track towards 2026
Macro
sentiment
Automotive
sentiment
Consumer
sentiment
Industry &
Medical
sentiment
Outlook next 12 months
Sep Eurozone PMI still weak in contraction while US PMI improving
slightly below 50. China slightly above 50.
GDP consensus expectations 2023/24 weaker in Eurozone 0.5% /
0.8% and China 5.0% / 4.5%, but higher in US 2.1% / 1.0%
2023 and 2024 semiconductor forecast w/o memory still at
-3% yoy and +5.7% y-o-y.
Light vehicle production in H2/2023 benefits from inventory
restocking, still existing pent-up demand as well as higher export
volumes and a stronger domestic demand in China;
+7.5% y-o-y in 2023.
H1/2024 expected to maintain momentum with eased
macroeconomic headwinds; +2.6% y-o-y in 2024.
Global smartphone forecast 2023/24 reduced to 1,139m / 1,144m
units implying -0,4% / +2.2% growth.
Despite an expected rebound in 4Q23, global smartphone shipments
in 2023 lower than 2022.
Wearable forecast 2023 slightly increased to 520 / 504m units
implying +5,6% / +2.4% growth y-o-y.
Electric market for automaton expected to grow +4% in 2024 vs.
+9% in 2023.
Global LED lighting shipment forecast for 2024 reduced to
+4.5% y-o-y.
Long-term outlook
GDP consensus forecast shows moderately improving growth in
Eurozone (1.6%) and US (1.5%).
China consensus growth is expected to remain on 2024 level (4.6%),
but recent IMF 2027 forecast was lowered to 3.7%.
- Light vehicle production expected to shift to a more traditional demand-
driven model with +1.6% y-o-y growth in 2025 to 90.6m and +1.8%
y-o-y in 2026 to 92.2m units.
- Significant growth in EVS (CAGR 30% over next 3 years) that usually
also have come with additional emitter & sensor enabled innovations
Global smartphone forecast 2025 shows growth increasing
to 2.7% y-o-y to 1.182m units.
Wearable forecast shows 5.6% y-o-y growth in 2025 to 580m units.
MicroLED display shipments expected to increase to 52m units in 2030
Steady growth of 7% p.a. for global industrial robot market until 2026.
Horticulture lighting market expected to reach a market size of US
$10.4 bn by 2028 (CAGR 22.4%).
Consumer robots and smart appliances shipments to grow at +35%
CAGR by 2027.
Sources: WSTS Semiconductor Market Forecast June 2023
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IHS Light Vehicle Production Forecast July 2023
OMDIA Micro LED Display Market Tracker 3Q23
OMDIA Smartphone Model Market Tracker 2Q23
IDC Quarterly Wearable Device Tracker Forecast 2Q23
TrendForce 2023 Global LED Lighting Market Analysis 2H23
VDMA Robotics Automation Market Update, International Federation of Robotics
ZVEI Global Electro- & Digital Industry Facts & Figures 2023
ABI Research Consumer Robots and Smart Appliances Q2 2023
S&P Global, Bloomberg, Hortidaily.com
amu OSRAMView entire presentation