Colombian Economy & Banking Sector Analysis
Canadian Housing Market on Pause
Significant undersupply should lead to a recovery as economy re-opens
0.9
0.8
Housing Market is Historically Undersupplied
Ratio of total home completions on 18-month rolling
basis relative to population change
90
80
Sales and Listings Falling Concurrently
sa sales-to-new listings ratio, %
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
1982-pres. avg.
70
что
60
50
40
40
Sellers' Market
Buyers' Market
0.3
30
82
85
88
91
94
97 00 03 06
09
12
15 18
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada.
Canada's Five Largest Metropolitan Areas*
13
MLS Home Price Index Benchmark
11
Price Y/Y Percentage Change
9
10.22
11.29
7
Average
5
4.05
3
2.55
1
-1
-3
-5
GTA
GVA
Montreal**
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
Policy Support Providing Large Assistance to
Households
2.5
%
2.0
1.5
1.0
-1.49
2.34
0.5
Calgary
Edmonton
0.0
20
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA. Data reflects April 2020
*Actual - not seasonally adjusted; **Data reflects March 2020
Hypothetical arrears rate on mortgages simulated by
BoC for 19% fall in GDP in 2020
Arrears without existing household
support measures
Arrears with existing support measures
21
22
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada Financial System Review.
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