Investor Presentation - Q2 2021
Macroeconomic forecasts and outlook for mBank Group
Operating environment for banks remains challenging due to low rates and high tax burdens
Key economic indicators for Poland
Short-term prospects for mBank (compared to 2020)
2019
2020
2021F
2022F
Net interest income & NIM
negative
GDP growth (YoY)
4.5%
-2.7%
5.7%
5.3%
Domestic demand (YoY)
3.5%
-3.8%
7.4%
6.4%
Private consumption (YoY)
4.0%
-3.0%
5.8%
6.2%
■ Interest rate cuts to the historically lowest level translating into
weaker interest income and strong pressure on margin
Exhausted space for deposit repricing and reducing funding costs
Investment (YoY)
7.2%
-8.4%
13.0%
8.8%
Inflation (eop)
3.4%
MPC rate (eop)
CHF/PLN (eop)
3.92
2.4%
1.50% 0.10% 0.10%
4.22
5.2%
4.0%
Net fee and commission income
positive
1.00%
4.04
3.87
EUR/PLN (eop)
4.25
4.56
4.45
4.30
Reviving customer activity and transactionality along with gradual
relaxation of pandemic restrictions and economic rebound
■ Selective adjustments of tariff of fees and commissions
-
Polish banking sector – monetary aggregates YoY
Total costs
slightly negative
2019
2020
2021F
2022F
Corporate loans
3.0%
-4.8%
4.7%
9.5%
Household loans
6.0%
3.0%
4.6%
6.9%
Reasonable management of operating costs amid growing GDP
Rising amortisation due to ongoing investments in IT
Announced lower contribution to the Bank Guarantee Fund
Mortgage loans
6.6%
7.3%
4.5%
5.6%
Loan loss provisions & FV change
slightly positive
Mortgage loans in PLN
12.1%
9.7%
10.0%
10.7%
Non-mortgage loans
5.1%
-3.8%
4.8%
9.1%
Corporate deposits
10.0%
19.0%
9.7%
5.7%
Household deposits
9.7% 10.7%
5.6%
5.2%
Despite expiration of loan moratoria and anti-crisis aid package,
the overall asset quality should not deteriorate materially
▪ The financial standing of corporate and retail borrowers to be
supported by progressing recovery of the Polish economy
Source: mBank's estimates as of 23.07.2021.
Investor Presentation - Q2 2021
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