Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
After-Tax Distribution Accretion / (Dilution)
AM & AMGP | For Average AM Unit Holder at AMGP Proposal | AR Downside Case
AM Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.679x Exchange Ratio
Status Quo AM:
Pro Forma AMGP:
$ Acc / (Dil):
Exchange Ratio
$0.86
$0.78
($0.08)
PF AMGP Coverage 1.205x
$3.415
$3.415
$3.415
(9.4%)
$3.415
2H 2018E
$3.000
1.679x
1.696x
1.713x
1.730x
(12.0%)
201⁹E
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
Cash Implied
Comid. / After-Tax 2H 2018E
Unit
XR
1.732x
$2.14
$1.89
($0.26)
1.224x
(9.3%)
(9.2%)
(9.1%)
2019E
(12.0%)
(11.9%)
(2.8%)
(12.2%)
2020E
$2.58
$2.51
($0.07)
1.13 1x
2020E
(2.8%)
(2.5%)
(2.2%)
(7.3%)
(1.9%)
2021E
$2.96
$2.75
($0.22)
1.119
2021E
(6.5%)
(7.0%)
(14.6%)
202 ZE
$3.41
$2.91
($0.50)
1.076x
AM Proposal
2022E
(13.4%)
(13.1%)
AMGP Accretion / (Dilution) - %
PF AMGP Coverage
Status Quo AMGP: $0.21
Pro Forma AMGP: $0.46
$ Acc / (Dil):
$0.26
ange Ratio
1.679x
1.696x
1.713x
124.6%
1.730x
2H 2018E
1.732x
1.205x
2H 2018E
124.6%
122.5%
120.5%
118.6%
74.5%
116.9%
2019E
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
$0.64
$1.12
$0.48
1.224x
2019E
74.5%
72.98
71.4%
68.7%
69.7%
Source: Management projections and FacBet as of 8/30/2018
Note: AMGP accretion / (dilution) based on SQ AM Management Coverage. After-tax distributions is distribution from entity less attributable qualified dividends and gains on capital taxes.
Note: 1.679x implied after-tax XR represents a 1.61-4x equity XR and cash consideration of $3.415 / unit. Cash assumed to be used to eliminate unitholder tax liability.
2020E
$0.88
$1.49
$0.61
1.131x
2020E
69.7%
68.6%
67.4%
66.3%
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
65.2%
50.1%
202 1E
$1.09
$1.64
$0.55
1.11%
2021E
50.1%
49.00
45.9%
2022E
30.1%
29.7%
29.3%
28.2%
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COI:
EVERGY INVESTIMENT &
MERCHANT BANKING
30.1%
2022E
$1.33
$1.73
$0.40
1.076x
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