Climate Change Impact and Structural Reforms in Kiribati
KIRIBATI
gap and making it challenging to forecast climate change and its impacts as well as to build relevant
long-term planning in response to the climate change. Efforts have been proposed to ensure that
the entire pacific region gets access to improved information systems and infrastructure that can be
used to more accurately predict the occurrence and severity of natural disasters, such as tropical
cyclones. One such project is the Climate Information and Early Warning Systems, One Pacific
Programme, submitted as a concept note in December 2021 at the Green Climate Fund by the
Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Program. This is a concerted effort across 14 Pacific
SIDS, including Kiribati, to gather and apply critical hydrologic and meteorological information. The
objective is to provide reliable, trusted early warnings about climate change hazards and technical
advice that will allow local, vulnerable communities to plan for and undertake effective adaptation
interventions (GCF, 2021).
13. Climate change will keep posing challenges and require further efforts from Kiribati.
World Bank (2017) estimated that adaptation costs exclusively for coastal protection in Kiribati—
protecting the low-lying atolls from rising sea level through sea dike construction and port
upgrade could reach US$54 million (equivalent to 11 percent of GDP per year) in the 2040s.6
Additionally, Dabla-Norris et al. (2021) uses a model-based estimation to show that Kiribati would
need to invest more than 25 percent of its GDP annually to upgrade and retrofit its infrastructure
with the objective to contain annual expected losses to below 1 percent of GDP, a higher number
than other Pacific Islands countries (Figure 2). These estimates give a sense of the scale of the
challenge in terms of financing
these climate investments. Thus,
while it is important that the
government secure enough
financing resources for climate
adaptation, which is highly relevant
for achieving a greener post-COVID
recovery, Kiribati needs to adopt a
strategic approach in incorporating
adaptation costs in its medium- and
long-term fiscal planning by first
ensuring fiscal space from general
budget, along with continuing
seeking support from development
partners for stronger institutional
and financial capacity.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Figure 2. Kiribati: Estimated Annual Climate
Adaptation Costs
Kiribati
Tuvalu
(In percent of GDP)
Vanuatu
Marshall
Islands
Tonga
Samoa
Solomon
Islands
*PNG
Fiji
Micronesia
Palau
Sources: Dabla-Norris et al. (2021); and IMF staff calculations.
Notes: Bars correspond to the sum of upgrading and retrofitting costs in the public sector and coastal protection costs.
The level of protection being costed corresponds to the protection that keeps average annual losses below 0.01 percent of
local GDP for protected areas. Data labels in the figure use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country
codes. "Missing values in the private sector for Papua New Guinea.
According to DGIZ et al. (2020), Kiribati accessed about AU$76.5 million of external funding during 2011-2018, of
which 46.4 percent was used for climate adaptation. This was equivalent to an annual average of 1.69 percent of 2018
GDP.
7 A full assessment of the environmental impact, maintenance, and sustainability of these infrastructures in the long
term, which are yet to be included in these estimates, will further raise costs.
8 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDView entire presentation