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Probability Weighted Multiple Economic Scenario Probability Weighted Multiple Economic Scenario Basecase Forecast 50% GDP Growth 2016 4.50% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Remarks 5.00% 5.00% 5.20% 5.40% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% Inflation (YoY) (CCPI) 5.0% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Average LTV Interest Rate (AWPLR) 7.53% 7.53% 7.53% 7.53% 7.53% 7.53% 7.53% 7.53% Exchange Rate (US$:LKR) 145.80 152.33 159.16 166.29 173.74 181.52 189.65 198.15 Unemployment 4.96% 4.96% 4.96% 4.96% 4.96% 4.96% 4.96% 4.96% Best Case Forecast 25% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Remarks GDP Growth 6.82% 7.32% 7.32% 7.52% 7.72% 7.82% 7.82% 7.82% Inflation (YoY) (CCPI) 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% Average LTV Std Interest Rate (AWPLR) 7.53% 7.20% Exchange Rate (US$:LKR) 147.26 148.73 Unemployment 4.00% 6.89% 150.22 4.00% 4.00% 6.59% 151.72 153.24 4.00% 4.00% 6.30% 6.03% 5.77% 5.52% 154.77 156.32 157.88 Deviation +1 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% Worstcase Forecast 25% GDP Growth Inflation (YoY) (CCPI) 2016 2.18% 7.4% 2017 2018 2.68% 2.68% 7.7% 7.5% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Remarks 2.88% 3.08% 3.18% 3.18% 3.18% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% Average LTV Interest Rate (AWPLR) Exchange Rate (US$:LKR) 7.53% 168.26 175.79 7.87% 8.23% 183.67 8.60% 9.00% 9.40% 9.83% 10.02% Std Deviation -1 191.90 200.50 209.48 218.86 252.57 Unemployment 5.10% 5.10% 5.15% 5.15% 5.44% 5.50% 5.55% 5.55% EY

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