PTT Group Financial and Strategic Insights
Gas/LNG
Petroleum
2022 Petroleum and Gas Outlook
$/bbl
150
100
50
Dubai
ptt
+ Recovered demand driven by higher vaccination rates and low global crude inventories
(GRM)
+ Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and unrest in ME
24
Concern of Omicron variants pressure market sentiment
20
16
- OPEC+ agreed to continue increasing production 400 KBD/month from Aug'21 to Sep'22 and
the market will be surplus from Q2'22 onwards
12
- Refinery maintenance season (Mar-Apr & Sept-Oct)
- US supply gradually recover due to high crude price and the new budget year
8
-
4
· Iran may increase supply in 2H22 if US relief sanction relief within Q1
Mogas
0
+ Rising mobility in Asia amid easing travel restriction measures
+ Lower Chinese export due to limited export quota
+ Support from US summer driving season in Q3
Concern on Omicron variant caused travel restriction in some countries
- Easing supply from higher utilization rate along with recovered demand
Gasoil
+ Demand recovery from the industrial and transportation sectors
+ Lower Chinese export due to limited export quota
- Fading heating demand after winter ends
Fuel Oil
1Q21
2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22
2Q22
3Q22 4Q22
Dubai
Mogas
Gasoil
HSFO
⚫VLSFO
-Singapore GRM
Price
Y2021
4Q2021
1Q2022(E)
2022(E)
Dubai
Mogas
69.2
78.4
96-101
100-105
80.3
93.8
113-118
Gasoil
76.0
89.8
115-120
HSFO (3.5%S)
64.4
71.5
VLSFO (0.5%S)
75.4
85.3
Singapore GRM
3.4
6.1
85-90
108-113
6.5-7.5
118-123
118-123
92-97
111-116
6.0-7.0
+ Low stock levels below 5 years average across all regions
Source: PTT, PRISM Petroleum Rolling as of March 2022
$/MMBTU
40
35
30
25
20
GEOROLO50
Asian Spot LNG
Henry Hub
15
HSFO: + Higher demand from economic recovery and more installation of scrubber in
marine vessels
- Easing supply from OPEC+ and higher utilization rate along with recovered demand
VLSFO: + Improved bunker demand following the increasing trading activities
- Higher supply from the increase in Chinese export quotas, higher utilization rate, and
new capacity from Kuwait
Singapore GRM
+ Improve following the recovery of gasoline and middle distillates
Gas/LNG
Asian Spot LNG: + Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine
+ European gas stock hit a record low in Jan'22
1Q21
2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
Price
Y2021
4Q2021
Asian Spot LNG
18.5
35.1
1Q2022(E)
26.3
2022(E)
-
Expected more US LNG export in 2022
22.7
Henry Hub (HH)
3.7
4.8
3.8
3.8
Henry Hub:
+ Recovered demand since the end of 2021
Source: FGE & EIA as of January 2022
Sufficient inventories during this winter in North Asia
- US gas supply will increase more than demand, especially in 2H22
25View entire presentation