KBank Subsidiaries and ASEAN Economic Strategy
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Thailand's external balances remain relatively strong compared to peers
High international reserve / Imports (Import Coverage)
Low foreign holding ratio in Thai government bonds
Number of Month
16.0
13.8
14.0
12.0
50%
42.0%
12.5
40%
11.2
10.5
9.4
10.9
30.1%
30%
10.0
8.0
6.0
6.8
20%
22.7%
12.3%
17.0%
10%
4.0
2.0
0%
Indonesia
South Korea
Malaysia
U.S.
Thailand
0.0
India Indonesia Phillippines South Korea Malaysia
Thailand Singapore
Source: CEIC, KResearch (data as of June 2020)
Note: Retrieved from Asia Bond Online, based on latest available data
Source: Asian Development Bank, US Department of Treasury
High international reserve ratio / External debts
150%
100%
83.4%
50%
0%
India
32.0%
102.6%
82.1%
42.3%
Indonesia Phillippines South Korea Malaysia
Source: CEIC, KResearch (data as of June 2020)
139.2%
18.2%
Thailand Singapore
■Thailand's economy and financial markets are able to
withstand impacts from QE tapering and its aftermath due to:
■High import coverage (international reserves/monthly
imports) compared with the IMF's three month import
coverage guideline
■More than 100% of external debt covered by
international reserves
■Low portion of foreign holdings in Thai government
bonds compared with other countries
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Monetary and fiscal expansion raises financial stability concerns
3.0
In consistent with the Fed, the BOT cut interest rate to
support the economy amid COVID-19 outbreak
Thailand has enough FX reserves
to meet all internal and external obligations
Percent
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
5
Federal Funds Target
Rate Upper Bound
Federal Funds Target
Rate Lower Bound
BOT Policy Rate
3 months of imports
$ Billion
$ Billion
FX Reserves
300
300
Reserves backing banknotes
■ST external debt
Net Forward Position
250
250
200
200
150
250.4
150
55.3
$274.5 Billion
$177.28 Billion
100
100
62.4
50
50
59.6
24.1
0
Source: BOT, KResearch
Last Update: July 31, 2020
0.0
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15-
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19-
Sep-19-
Jan-20
May-20
Excess liquid assets in Thai commercial banks slightly decreased
■Due to a deteriorating economy, the Fed decided to cut its policy 4,000,000
rate by 1.50% in 2020 to 0.00-0.25%
■Monetary easing leads to a massive exodus of capital from
emerging markets and worsens exchange rate depreciation.
However, Thailand's external stability will likely be maintained
■The Thai banking system excess liquidity decreased due to the
impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak. However, CAR and NPL ratios
were rather manageable (18.41% and 3.21% as of 1Q20,
respectively), with net profits of Bt64.17bn in 1Q20
Source: Kresearch (as of August 2020)
Million Baht
5,000,000
%LCR
184.74
186.2
183.5
182.23 190
176.9
173.8
180
170
2,000,000
160
2016
2017
2018
Liquid Assets
2019
-LCR (%)
1Q20
2Q20
3,000,000
Note: BOT has imposed the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) Framework which replaces the maintenance 6% reserve
requirement. Regarding the LCR framework, all banks shall maintain high-quality liquid assets not less than net expected
cash outflow over the next 30 days. The LCR was implemented on January 1, 2016, with the minimum requirement set at
60%, rising in equal annual steps of 10 percentage points to reach 100% on January 1, 2020
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
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