Investor Presentaiton

41 Assumptions underlying scenario analysis Main case • Global economy: moderate rebound in global economy • Moderate tightening in policy - 50 bps over the next 12 months • Moderating house price gains (3-5%) Housing investment falls, consumption slows, but business investment picks up Stronger case • Global economy: as per main case • Monetary policy as per main case Ongoing house price gains (8-12% growth) . Consumption & business investment continue to grow firmly • Credit growth strong Weaker case - domestically driven • Global economy: as per main case • 3x50bp interest rate rises up to Mar quarter 2003 • Negative 3% house prices • Flow through to weaker employment, business investment and housing. construction and turnover which in turn feed through to Credit and deposit volumes Source: economics@anz Weaker case - globally driven • Global economy sharply weaker - double dip US recession • Interest rates cut to 4.00% • Negative 6% house prices (peak to . trough) Negative employment growth, mild. recession, much weaker business. investment which in turn feed through to Credit and deposit volumes Investor Presentation ANZ

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