Scotiabank Investor Day Summary

NAFTA REVIEW AND CONSIDERATIONS Scotiabank is committed to long-term growth across the Pacific Alliance Impact on Pacific Alliance ○ No material impact expected on Peru, Chile, or Colombia o Mexico is highly exposed to disruptions in NAFTA, but we do not expect any major negative changes in the trading relationship with the U.S. Scotiabank operations are diversified and Mexico accounts for roughly 5%+ of the Bank's overall results Mexico's loan book is equally split between Retail/Commercial Only 20% of the Commercial exposure is directly linked to the U.S./NAFTA • Viewpoint . ○ NAFTA came into effect in 1994. Much has changed since then in the global economy. Efforts to modernize elements of NAFTA in the areas of e-commerce, intellectual property, and professional labour mobility are welcome o Mexico has a strong manufacturing industry and 13 free-trade agreements with 47 countries 。 NAFTA has helped Mexico to advance on a number of meaningful structural reforms in sectors that include energy, telecommunications, and transportation, amongst others, that will support growth ○ Mexico invests heavily in education and produces more engineers each year than Germany ○ Stable transition to new government and hand-off of NAFTA talks Scotiabank Economics Outlook 。 Scotiabank's baseline macroeconomic scenario anticipates that agreement and ratification of a new version of the pact is likely to be pushed into 2019 The ongoing NAFTA uncertainty could reduce Canadian and Mexican GDP growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points in 2018, resulting in a baseline growth forecast of 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively. US real GDP growth should not be materially dampened this year Growth risks are to the upside for Mexico and Canada if the NAFTA talks conclude on positive terms earlier than currently expected. Scotiabank 61

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