Investor Presentaiton
Impact of Brexit on Ireland likely net negative
Deal means the shock is smaller & spread over longer horizon
Modelled impact on output (in % of growth) versus No Brexit
baseline: FTA reduces impact significantly
-1
-2
-4
IE trading partners: UK important for good imports (land
bridge) & services exports
% of
total
Goods
Services
(2020)
(2020)
Total
(2020)
Exp.
Imp. Exp. Imp.
Exp. Imp.
US
31.2
15.5
13.5
35.0
20.6
30.7
UK
9.1
23.1
14.4
6.6
12.0
10.0
-5
567
-6
EU-27
39.6
34.9
30.6
11.7
34.2
16.8
-7
China
6.8
7.6
2.9
1.6
4.4
3.0
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 2025
FTA
WTO
Disorderly No-Deal
Other
13.3
18.9
38.6
45.1
28.5
39.3
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
Source: CBI, NTMA analysis
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