Investor Presentaiton
•
October 12, 2021
CERAMIC: VALUATION
GBM
WE ARE INITIATING COVERAGE ON CERAMIC WITH A MARKET OUTPERFORMER RATING AND A 2022 PRICE TARGET OF P$75, REPRESENTING A -40% RETURN.
Our price target is based on a DCF valuation, where the perpetuity cash flow of P$2.5 billion is based on the perpetuity exercise below, which considers the company's ceramic tiles capacity utilization rates
(including an expected expansion) and the revenues of its other business segments under different EBITDA margin scenarios.
Our DCF approach is discounted at a 10% WACC, including a liquidity premium of 1.7% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%.
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW APPROACH
-Figures in MXN Million
2021e
2022e
2023e
2024e
2025e
2026e
EBITDA
1,990
2,137
2,258
2,380
2,327
2,382
Perpetual CF
2,500
VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS
Working Capital
-205
-173
-344
-221
-72
-27
Revenues '20-'25 CAGR
5.3%
Taxes
-334
-366
-383
-406
-392
-402
-506
EBITDA '20-'25 CAGR
5.5%
CAPEX
-653
-1,403
-1,020
-815
-840
-857
-815
Tax Rate
30.0%
FCF to the Firm
196
510
939
1,023
1,095
1,179
Avg. CAPEX (% of Revenues)
4.5%
WACC
10.0%
Growth
g
3.5%
DCF
464
775
768
748
12,346
WACC
% of Debt
Net Present Value of Cash Flows
$15,101
(-) Net Debt '22e
3,474
(-) Minority Interest
833
(-) Underfunded Pension Plan
330
(+) ICC 50% Ownership
100
(=) Theoretical Market Cap
$10,563
# of Shares (in Million)
2022e Theoretical Price
Upside
142
$75
38%
30.0%
Cost of Debt
6.3%
% of Equity
70.0%
Beta
0.9
Risk-Free Rate
5.0%
Market Risk Premium
5.8%
Cost of Equity*
11.6%
WACC
10.0%
*Includes liquidity premium
PERPETUITY EBITDA
Our perpetual EBITDA of P$2.5 billion considers the following:
•
2025e ceramic prices increasing in line with inflation
The company's incremental EBITDA from an expected -20% capacity expansion
•
Long-term EBITDA margins of 16.5% including IFRS 16
CERAMIC'S
Consolidated
EBITDA Mg.
Perpetual EBITDA (MXN Billion)
Ceramic Tiles Capacity Utilization Rates
CERAMIC 5Y Avg.
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
14.5%
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
15.5%
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
Long-Term GBMe
16.5%
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
17.5%
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
Record High (2016)
18.5%
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.8
LAMOSA/CERAMIC: THE ROAD TO GROWTH IS PAVED WITH TILES. | 52View entire presentation