Insurgency Success Factors and Rebel Legitimacy
This analysis also addresses gaps in legitimacy literature concerning external actor
involvement in conflicts. External actors and external support are increasingly identified as
significant influencers of rebel success 40. DeRouen and Sobek (2004) completed a study to
evaluate the determinants of success in rebel groups. Their analysis suggests that external
support is the greatest determinant of conflict outcomes, with greater levels of support
contributing to greater levels of success 41. However, external actors have not yet been
incorporated into discussions on legitimacy in rebellion. By evaluating legitimacy awarded by
external actors, this analysis connects debates on external support to legitimacy literature.
This analysis also contributes to contemporary legitimacy literature by applying legitimacy
concepts to the rebellion in Chechnya. Russia consistently ranks lowest on the state legitimacy
index and in legitimacy evaluations 42. Local rejection of Russian legitimate rule and repeat
rebellions suggest that legitimacy literature could introduce beneficial interpretations of conflict
in Chechnya. This assessment introduces the application of legitimacy theory to the context of
Chechnya, to highlight its relevance to regional context.
Successful Rebellions
The base definition of rebel success is the deposition of the state government structure and
assumption of power by a rebel group or the achievement of de facto rule over a designated
territory 43. The contemporary reality of insurgencies and the growing presence of global and
transnational factors complicate traditional definitions of insurgent success. In Syria, for
example, multiple insurgencies with different objectives are occurring simultaneously44. The
protracted nature of insurgencies can also mean that achievement of success in a given time
period, does not equate to overall success of the insurgency or state. The Chechen insurgency's
achievement of de facto status in 1996 and loss of that status in 1999 is a great example of
11View entire presentation