Investor Presentaiton
The Macroeconomic State of Affairs
The economy is showing signs of a slowdown in light of meaningfully higher interest rates, yet more tightening is likely
until inflation slows
Q2 2022 Market and Economic Developments
Federal Reserve is delivering the fastest series of rate hikes in a generation...
Quarterly Change in the Fed Funds Target Rate (1), %
U.S. economic growth slowed in the first half and
is likely to show moderation in 2022 from the
strong pace of growth in 2021
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
market-implied
changes
-
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
علماء
لسمر
זיך
TU
1978 1980
1988
1993 1995 2005 2015
2018
2021
Consumption is slowing as rising prices
reduce consumer confidence and strain
ability to spend despite continued healthy
household savings and a sound labor market
Inflation continues to be meaningfully elevated,
though a slowdown led by goods prices is
expected
The Federal Reserve delivered the equivalent of
five 25 bps rate hikes - the most in a quarter
plus announced runoff of its
since 1980
portfolio
More than seven additional 25 bps rate hikes (2)
are anticipated for the second half of the year
Volatility remained elevated in Q2 as markets
repriced into the rapidly changing outlook for
interest rates and the economy more broadly,
which has contributed to a weakness in risk
assets
...leading to a sharp deterioration in financial conditions and a prospective slowdown in
the economy
Goldman Financial Conditions Index(1), Index
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
2017
2018
tighter financial
conditions
2019
2020
2021
2022
Note: Data as of July 19, 2022, unless otherwise noted. For source information, please refer to the endnotes included at the end of this presentation.
Detailed endnotes and a glossary of defined terms are included at the end of this presentation.
ANNALY
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