Global Wealth Management Update
Colombian Economy
Strong underlying momentum
Economic activity is resilient: Services sector is leading the
growth. Soft landing deceleration is the most likely scenario. GDP
is expected to grow 8.1% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023
The Government acts under the institutional framework, and the
Tax Reform process shows institutions' works. Congress show
that check and balances is still working. The Government will
comply with the fiscal rule, which is also an independent
institution aiming to guarantee fiscal sustainability, and the fiscal
rule is a priority for the Government
Banrep pointed out that the end of the hiking cycle is closer.
Inflation is increasing at a slower pace and going through the
peak. The next discussion will be how long the rates will stay in
high levels
GDP 2022E:
8.1%
GDP 2023F:
1.5%
GDP 2024F:
2.5%
13.4%
Finance, Insurance,
& Real Estate
9.8%
Other
5.7%
Natural Resources
3.2%
Information &
Communication
4.0%
Arts &
Entertainment
COLOMBIAN
GDP BY
INDUSTRY
(Q3-2022)
7.0%
Professional,
Scientific,
& Technical
Services
18.0%
Wholesale, Retail Trade,
Accommodation & Food Services
15.2%
12.3%
Manufacturing
6.7%
Mining and Oil
& Gas Extraction
4.8%
Construction
Public Administration
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg, as of Feb 10, 2023.
Contributions to Colombian GDP Growth
20
y/y % change
-20
ཐྭ༅n༠ཐྭཔྟཱཿཋ༞{
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-25
Other*
Investment
Consumption
Net Exports
Government
Real GDP
20
21
19
18
*Statistical discrepancy, subject to revision.
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Haver Analytics.
22
22
Top Trading Partners*
United
Others
States
43%
30%
Brazil 5%
China 9%
India 7%
Netherlands 5%
* Trade data updated as of Q3-2022.
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