Renewable Diesel Feedstock Perspective
FEEDSTOCK:
GLOBAL AVAILABILITY OF 5 MILLION BPD
RD capacity addition points to marginal rearrangement of global trade flows
Global Pool:
1 MM BPD (50 million tonnes) low-CI tallow, grease, cooking oil
4 MM BPD (200 million tonnes) higher-CI vegetable oils
Million tonnes
90
80
Global Vegetable Oil Production
Renewable diesel announced projects call ~7% of the
global feed pool 2021-2024-within native supply growth
USGC prices should "arb" based on delivered Cl parity
Agricultural sector response to higher oil seed prices
Camelina and other non-food oil seeds grow well in
high latitudes where they are used as switch crops
against wheat; Montana is ideal and these future ~20
Cl sources will show rapid growth
Majority of long term MRL feedstocks expected to be
from non-food sources with attractive low Cl
70
60
50
50
40
432
Source: USDA and Montana State University.
Note: eestimate.
30
20
10
0
2013/14
2015/16
2017/18
2019/20
2021/22e
■ Palm oil
■Soybean oil
■Rapeseed Oil
■Sunflower oil
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