Engine No. 1 Activist Presentation Deck
Impact of Increased Efficiency on Demand Predictions
Gains in efficiency - many relying on existing technology - could result in significantly
diminished demand.
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"A sharp pick-up in efficiency improvements is the single most important element that brings the world towards
the Sustainable Development Scenario... This includes efforts to promote the efficient design, use and recycling
of materials such as steel, aluminum, cement and plastics. This increased 'material efficiency' could be enough in
itself to halt the growth in emissions from these sectors."
IEA World Energy Outlook (2019)
• For example, the IEA's WEO 2020 assumes
that petrochemicals will be the largest driver
of future oil demand growth, accounting for
three-quarters to 2040
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Increased efficiency in manufacturing and
industrial processes could dramatically impact
future demand
BNEF, however, predicts petrochemical
demand growth to be slower due to increased
recycling, and development of alternatives to
oil & gas derived feedstocks
We estimate that increasing global recycling
rates to 50% by 2040 (from ~20% today) could
reduce petrochemical led oil demand by
~20%, and total oil demand by ~3%
Oil demand by sector, 2019-2030, IEA STEPS scenario
Petrochem, followed by Trucks, are the key growth sectors
p/qu
30
20
10
2019
Text source: IEA's World Energy Outlook 2019 & 2020, Bloomberg NEF. Chart source: IEA's World Energy Outlook 2020.
Passenger
vehicles
PEPERO*
2030
30
20
10
Long-distance
transport
A涶NANANANANANANAI
2019
Trucks 20
Aviation
Shipping
• 2019 levels
30
2030
10
2019
Petrochemicals
and others
SARANASAN
Petchem feedstock
Buildings
Industry
2030
REENERGIZE
EXXON//
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