Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck
Intro
Net Asset Value
VALUE-BASED CARE
Value-Based Care consists of care delivery companies that take risk on
patient health outcomes and are rewarded if they keep their patients
healthy and out of the hospital. This stands in contrast to care delivery
businesses that charge patients and payers on a fee-for-service basis.
Value-based care enjoys strong secular tailwinds, and companies em-
ploying this business model have therefore historically been valued at a
significant premium to fee-for-service businesses.
During the last two quarters, our investments' most comparable public
peers One Medical (ONEM), Oak Street Health (OSH), and Signify (SGFY),
have all been taken private through takeover offers. The multiples at
which these transactions occurred are outlined in the scatter chart on the
right-hand side. These levels are helpful in gauging our valuation levels
considering the challenge in triangulating valuation multiples for our
businesses against more traditional healthcare businesses such as United
Health (UNH) and Humana (HUM), and enabler businesses Agilon (AGL)
and Privia (PRVA). To better relate our value-based care investments to the
benchmarks available, we increasingly focus on capital efficiency metrics
(revenue growth plus EBITDA margins) when calibrating our valuations.
Year to date, Cityblock has beaten expectations on both revenue and
EBITDA. While encouraging, we refrain from extrapolating this into H2
2023 and H1 2024. The company remains focused on improving margins
by dedicating its operations to regions and populations where its care
model is proving the strongest health outcomes and financial results,
and is funded to break-even after raising nearly USD 600m in 2021. Our
valuation corresponds to an NTM revenue multiple some 20 percent
below where One Medical and Oak Street Health were taken private.
VillageMD is integrating its acquisition of Summit Health, and cost
synergies are being realized at higher levels than expected. Expectations
on growth have been lowered due to a faster pace of right-sizing the
company's footprint after increasing significantly in scale following the
acquisition. This drives this quarter's write-down. We have contracted our
NTM revenue multiple by just over 5 percent relative to a fairly flat peer
group, which adds to the downwards revision. Our valuation corresponds
to an NTM revenue multiple 10 percent below where One Medical and
Oak Street Health were taken private, and a slightly decreased 10 percent
premium to the multiple used in valuing Cityblock.
KINNEVIK
Interim Report Q2 2023
Portfolio Overview
Value-Based Care
Revenue Growth (2022)
Gross Margin (2022)
EV/NTM R
EV/NTM R (Q/Q Change)
Note:
12x
9x
6x
3x
Sustainability
10%
Our
Investees
VBC Enablers
46%
14%
3.3x
(6)%
Equity Value (Q/Q Change)
(11)%
+5%
"Peer Top Quartile" data points are the average metrics of the top quartile peers in terms of revenue multiple
"Revenue Growth (2022)" pro forma Village MD's acquisition of Summit Health
Peer
Average
13%
22%
20%
1.6x
(2)%
Peer Top
Quartile
Traditional Care Providers
15%
EV/NTM Revenue and Capital Efficiency (Revenue Growth plus EBITDA Margin)
Key Public Benchmarks as at Quarter-End
27%
2.7x
(1)%
+11%
Financial Statements
30%
26%
(4)%
40%
Previous VBC Peers Taken Private
Other
Unlisted Portfolio Weight
Fair Value Change (Q/Q)
50%
60%
ā Healthcare Technology (Transcarent)
70%
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