Goldman Sachs Investment Banking Pitch Book
Goldman
Sachs
Observations on Projections
Ferdinand Management - Received 28-Nov-2022
Overall
Market Sensitive
Revenue
Capital
Deployment¹
Adjusted
EBITDA Margin
INVESTMENT BANKING
DIVISION
CONFIDENTIAL
Overall robust growth assumptions
■ Revenue grows at 21% CAGR, EBITDA and EPS grow at >25% CAGRS for 2023E-2027E
Faster than historical growth across all key metrics despite much larger company / base
-$6bn of M&A during projection period; limited valuation arbitrage at current / projected multiples
-450 bps projected margin expansion; -290 bps over prior four years
■ Projections imply -6% average market return in the S&P 500 from year end 2022 to year end at 2027
■ Organic growth of 4% annually; higher than CD&R's view of "true organic growth" for Focus
■ Following a moderate increase in 2023E, upfront capital deployment for M&A accelerates to $1,300mm in
2025E and continues slight increases to $1,375mm in 2027
Forecast assumes a slowdown in M&A through Q2 2023, with a significant ramp in second half of 2023 as
delayed backlog drives an acceleration in pipeline realization
Forecast represents a 26% and 33% increase from prior peak year (2021) in 2025E and 2027E, respectively
■ Nearly $6bn in upfront capital deployed over 5-year forecast vs. -$3bn in the 5 years since being public
(2018-2022)
Source: Ferdinand Management and Ferdinand public filings. Includes both cash and equity purchase consideration.
Adjusted EBITDA margins expand to -30% by 2027E vs. -25% currently and -22% in 2019
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