Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck
Intro
Net Asset Value
but seek to triangulate valuations that does not indirectly incorporate bid
premiums into the valuations of our investments.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 8 percent in Cityblock amounts to
SEK 3,694m, up some 25 percent in the quarter. The NTM revenue
multiple has been expanded by around 8 percent in the quarter rela-
tive to the over 50 percent expansion in the full peer group, leading to
Cityblock being valued in line with the peer group average. In relation
to the peer group constituents not subject to takeover offers or spec-
ulation thereof, Cityblock is valued at a slight but decreasing premium
considering the company's revenue growth significantly outpacing the
listed benchmarks while proving sustainable gross margins in its more
established cohorts. Our write-up in dollar terms benefits materially from
the weakening Swedish krona.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 4 percent shareholding in VillageMD
amounts to SEK 4,232m, up some 15 percent from last quarter's level.
Our NTM revenue multiple has been expanded by around 9 percent
relative to the over 50 percent expansion in the full peer group, leading
to VillageMD being valued at a considerably lower premium to the peer
average than in the previous quarter. In relation to the peer group constit-
uents not subject to takeover offers or speculation thereof, VillageMD is
valued at premium proportionate to the company's structural gains and
stronger growth trajectory stemming from the unique partnership with
Walgreens Boots Alliance. Our write-up in dollar terms benefits materially
from the weakening Swedish krona.
VIRTUAL CARE
Virtual Care consists of healthcare businesses that deliver general or spe-
cialized care services through virtual channels, and leverage technology
such as Al to improve the care outcomes for their users. We benchmark
these businesses in part against a peer set of listed telemedicine compa-
nies, including generalists such as Teladoc (TDOC) and Amwell (AMWL),
and more vertical players such as Hims & Hers (HIMS) and Lifestance (LFST).
The companies in this peer set grew revenues by around 80 percent on
average in 2021 with gross margins of 40-50 percent. In 2022, the average
expected peer growth rate is closer to 30 percent, and the peer group
trades at an average 2.0x NTM revenues. Our businesses are growing
KINNEVIK
Interim Report Q3 2022
Portfolio Overview
Sustainability
revenues at a materially higher rate with comparable gross margins, and
are better positioned for long-term growth compared to their more mature
listed peers. Virtual Care is nascent in itself and the current cohort of listed
peers largely consists of companies facing structural challenges that our
unlisted companies aim to disrupt. As a consequence, our Virtual Care
companies are valued at a material premium to the peer group, at around
8-10x NTM revenues on average, more in line with SaaS benchmarks that
trade at around 9x NTM revenues with more similar financial profiles to
those of our unlisted virtual health businesses.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 5 percent shareholding in Spring Health
amounts to SEK 1,110m. Due to liquidation preferences, the fair value
of our shareholding in dollar terms remains in line with the capital we
invested into the company when it raised capital during the third quarter
of 2021, but our carrying value appreciates due to the weakening Swed-
ish krona. The underlying valuation of the company has been adjusted
upwards to reflect stable peer multiples in the quarter and continued
strong performance. The valuation remains at a significant but lowered
premium to the forward-looking multiples of our peer group of telemed-
icine operators, but at a considerable and expanding discount to the
NTM revenue multiples of SaaS businesses with a similar financial profile.
PLATFORMS & MARKETPLACES
Our Platforms and Marketplace businesses form the most diverse group
of investments in the NAV categorization introduced this year. The group
spans online grocer businesses such as Mathem and Oda with mid-30s
gross margins, to pure marketplaces like Jobandtalent with gross margins
more than twice as high. Accordingly, these businesses are valued against
different peer sets. The average peer group valuation level is around 1x
NTM revenues for lower-margin e-commerce peers and around 3x NTM
revenues on average for higher margin marketplace peers. Average peer
growth rates were typically around 40-45 percent in 2021 in both ends
of the margin spectrum. Our Platforms & Marketplaces companies are in
general valued in line with, or at narrow premiums to, their respective peer
group average. This is reflective of their later stage of maturity, but also of
the valuation levels that these businesses have raised capital relative to
how their listed peer groups were valued at the time of these transactions.
Financial Statements
Other
The fair value of Kinnevik's 27 percent shareholding in Budbee amounts
to SEK 2,415m, up 23 percent in the quarter. The valuation is in line with
what Budbee is being ascribed in the ongoing merger with Instabox,
and is based on NTM revenue multiples inferred from a set of logistics
technology and mobility businesses such as InPost (INPST.AS), DoorDash
(DASH) and Uber (UBER). Budbee's NTM revenue multiple is at a material
premium to the peer group average, a peer group which saw its average
multiple contract in high single digits in the quarter. In relation to the peer
group's more richly valued constituents, such as In Post, our valuation is at
a more narrow premium, warranted by Budbee's materially higher growth
rate solidified by the company's proven underlying EBITDA profitability
and stronger outlook.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 31 percent shareholding in Mathem
amounts to SEK 194m, down some 75 percent in the quarter. The va-
luation is based on revenue multiples of a composite peer group of
inventory holding e-commerce retailers and meal kit businesses such as
Zalando (ZAL.DE), Boozt (BOOZT.ST) and HelloFresh (HFG.DE), as well as
estimates of market valuations of Ocado's (OCDO.L) retail business. The
peer group's average NTM revenue multiple contracted by 20-25 percent
in the quarter. We have materially revised our estimations of Mathem's
future capital need and the effects of continued top-line headwinds from a
short-term reversion of consumer behavior, which together with continued
multiple contraction drives this quarter's material downward valuation
revision. The assessed valuation implies a multiple of 0.4x the company's
revenues during the last twelve months as at 30 June 2022 (as disclosed
on p. 12 but pro forma the acquisition of Mat.se), but naturally takes the
forward outlook into account. On an NTM revenue multiple basis, the
valuation is at a 10 percent discount to the key peers referenced above.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 21 percent shareholding in Oda amounts
to SEK 645m, down more than 40 percent in the quarter even when in-
cluding our SEK 220m investment in the quarter. The valuation is based
on revenue multiples of the same composite peer group used in valuing
Mathem. The decrease in fair value is driven primarily by contracting
market multiples, but is exacerbated by a revised outlook as the company
seeks to temper its cash burn. The assessed valuation implies a multiple of
around 1.1x the company's revenues during the last twelve months as at
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