Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck slide image

Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck

Intro Net Asset Value but seek to triangulate valuations that does not indirectly incorporate bid premiums into the valuations of our investments. The fair value of Kinnevik's 8 percent in Cityblock amounts to SEK 3,694m, up some 25 percent in the quarter. The NTM revenue multiple has been expanded by around 8 percent in the quarter rela- tive to the over 50 percent expansion in the full peer group, leading to Cityblock being valued in line with the peer group average. In relation to the peer group constituents not subject to takeover offers or spec- ulation thereof, Cityblock is valued at a slight but decreasing premium considering the company's revenue growth significantly outpacing the listed benchmarks while proving sustainable gross margins in its more established cohorts. Our write-up in dollar terms benefits materially from the weakening Swedish krona. The fair value of Kinnevik's 4 percent shareholding in VillageMD amounts to SEK 4,232m, up some 15 percent from last quarter's level. Our NTM revenue multiple has been expanded by around 9 percent relative to the over 50 percent expansion in the full peer group, leading to VillageMD being valued at a considerably lower premium to the peer average than in the previous quarter. In relation to the peer group constit- uents not subject to takeover offers or speculation thereof, VillageMD is valued at premium proportionate to the company's structural gains and stronger growth trajectory stemming from the unique partnership with Walgreens Boots Alliance. Our write-up in dollar terms benefits materially from the weakening Swedish krona. VIRTUAL CARE Virtual Care consists of healthcare businesses that deliver general or spe- cialized care services through virtual channels, and leverage technology such as Al to improve the care outcomes for their users. We benchmark these businesses in part against a peer set of listed telemedicine compa- nies, including generalists such as Teladoc (TDOC) and Amwell (AMWL), and more vertical players such as Hims & Hers (HIMS) and Lifestance (LFST). The companies in this peer set grew revenues by around 80 percent on average in 2021 with gross margins of 40-50 percent. In 2022, the average expected peer growth rate is closer to 30 percent, and the peer group trades at an average 2.0x NTM revenues. Our businesses are growing KINNEVIK Interim Report Q3 2022 Portfolio Overview Sustainability revenues at a materially higher rate with comparable gross margins, and are better positioned for long-term growth compared to their more mature listed peers. Virtual Care is nascent in itself and the current cohort of listed peers largely consists of companies facing structural challenges that our unlisted companies aim to disrupt. As a consequence, our Virtual Care companies are valued at a material premium to the peer group, at around 8-10x NTM revenues on average, more in line with SaaS benchmarks that trade at around 9x NTM revenues with more similar financial profiles to those of our unlisted virtual health businesses. The fair value of Kinnevik's 5 percent shareholding in Spring Health amounts to SEK 1,110m. Due to liquidation preferences, the fair value of our shareholding in dollar terms remains in line with the capital we invested into the company when it raised capital during the third quarter of 2021, but our carrying value appreciates due to the weakening Swed- ish krona. The underlying valuation of the company has been adjusted upwards to reflect stable peer multiples in the quarter and continued strong performance. The valuation remains at a significant but lowered premium to the forward-looking multiples of our peer group of telemed- icine operators, but at a considerable and expanding discount to the NTM revenue multiples of SaaS businesses with a similar financial profile. PLATFORMS & MARKETPLACES Our Platforms and Marketplace businesses form the most diverse group of investments in the NAV categorization introduced this year. The group spans online grocer businesses such as Mathem and Oda with mid-30s gross margins, to pure marketplaces like Jobandtalent with gross margins more than twice as high. Accordingly, these businesses are valued against different peer sets. The average peer group valuation level is around 1x NTM revenues for lower-margin e-commerce peers and around 3x NTM revenues on average for higher margin marketplace peers. Average peer growth rates were typically around 40-45 percent in 2021 in both ends of the margin spectrum. Our Platforms & Marketplaces companies are in general valued in line with, or at narrow premiums to, their respective peer group average. This is reflective of their later stage of maturity, but also of the valuation levels that these businesses have raised capital relative to how their listed peer groups were valued at the time of these transactions. Financial Statements Other The fair value of Kinnevik's 27 percent shareholding in Budbee amounts to SEK 2,415m, up 23 percent in the quarter. The valuation is in line with what Budbee is being ascribed in the ongoing merger with Instabox, and is based on NTM revenue multiples inferred from a set of logistics technology and mobility businesses such as InPost (INPST.AS), DoorDash (DASH) and Uber (UBER). Budbee's NTM revenue multiple is at a material premium to the peer group average, a peer group which saw its average multiple contract in high single digits in the quarter. In relation to the peer group's more richly valued constituents, such as In Post, our valuation is at a more narrow premium, warranted by Budbee's materially higher growth rate solidified by the company's proven underlying EBITDA profitability and stronger outlook. The fair value of Kinnevik's 31 percent shareholding in Mathem amounts to SEK 194m, down some 75 percent in the quarter. The va- luation is based on revenue multiples of a composite peer group of inventory holding e-commerce retailers and meal kit businesses such as Zalando (ZAL.DE), Boozt (BOOZT.ST) and HelloFresh (HFG.DE), as well as estimates of market valuations of Ocado's (OCDO.L) retail business. The peer group's average NTM revenue multiple contracted by 20-25 percent in the quarter. We have materially revised our estimations of Mathem's future capital need and the effects of continued top-line headwinds from a short-term reversion of consumer behavior, which together with continued multiple contraction drives this quarter's material downward valuation revision. The assessed valuation implies a multiple of 0.4x the company's revenues during the last twelve months as at 30 June 2022 (as disclosed on p. 12 but pro forma the acquisition of Mat.se), but naturally takes the forward outlook into account. On an NTM revenue multiple basis, the valuation is at a 10 percent discount to the key peers referenced above. The fair value of Kinnevik's 21 percent shareholding in Oda amounts to SEK 645m, down more than 40 percent in the quarter even when in- cluding our SEK 220m investment in the quarter. The valuation is based on revenue multiples of the same composite peer group used in valuing Mathem. The decrease in fair value is driven primarily by contracting market multiples, but is exacerbated by a revised outlook as the company seeks to temper its cash burn. The assessed valuation implies a multiple of around 1.1x the company's revenues during the last twelve months as at 32
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