Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AR CONCESSIONS
1 Extend MVC to 2020
VOLUMES FORECAST (Mbbld)
250
200
150
100
50
2
0
153
========
Earn-Out
Part 1
(2019)
100
Earn-Out
Part 2
(2020)
2017A
178
2017-2019
178,425
120
2018E
Mgmt. Forecast
200,563
2018-2020
Mgmt. Forecast
204
120
▬▬▬▬ILI
2019E
Source: Management Base Case projections as March 23, 2017.
Barrel "Miss" (000's)
% miss
Implied Payment ($MM)
Barrel Miss (000's)
% miss
Implied Payment ($MM)
220
2020E
Reimburse AM for volume shortfalls below earn-out thresholds
10
6%
$14
10
5%
$14
20
11%
$28
20
EBITDA ($ in millions)
10%
$28
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
30
17%
$42
30
$171
15%
$42
Total Water EBITDA
$111
2017A
40
22%
$56
40
$57
$207
2018E
50
28%
$70
$140
50
25%
$71
$245
60
34%
$84
60
MVC Water EBITDA
30%
$85
Confidentia!
$144
2019E
70
39%
$98
Depending on the negotiated earn-out payment
discount, AR would have to miss its forecast by
nearly 50% to be at risk in this construct
70
$268
35%
$99
2020E
80
45%
$112
80
40%
$113
BAIRD
Project Bronco
200 MVC
150 MVC
120 MVC
90
50%
$126
90
45%
$127
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