Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book slide image

Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book

POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AR CONCESSIONS 1 Extend MVC to 2020 VOLUMES FORECAST (Mbbld) 250 200 150 100 50 2 0 153 ======== Earn-Out Part 1 (2019) 100 Earn-Out Part 2 (2020) 2017A 178 2017-2019 178,425 120 2018E Mgmt. Forecast 200,563 2018-2020 Mgmt. Forecast 204 120 ▬▬▬▬ILI 2019E Source: Management Base Case projections as March 23, 2017. Barrel "Miss" (000's) % miss Implied Payment ($MM) Barrel Miss (000's) % miss Implied Payment ($MM) 220 2020E Reimburse AM for volume shortfalls below earn-out thresholds 10 6% $14 10 5% $14 20 11% $28 20 EBITDA ($ in millions) 10% $28 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 30 17% $42 30 $171 15% $42 Total Water EBITDA $111 2017A 40 22% $56 40 $57 $207 2018E 50 28% $70 $140 50 25% $71 $245 60 34% $84 60 MVC Water EBITDA 30% $85 Confidentia! $144 2019E 70 39% $98 Depending on the negotiated earn-out payment discount, AR would have to miss its forecast by nearly 50% to be at risk in this construct 70 $268 35% $99 2020E 80 45% $112 80 40% $113 BAIRD Project Bronco 200 MVC 150 MVC 120 MVC 90 50% $126 90 45% $127 Page 8
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