The Global Solar Photovoltaic Supply Chain and Bottom-UP Cost Model Results

Monte Carlo Analysis of Multiple Input Variables for the U.S. Normal Distributions of Multiple Input Variables for PERC (1,000 Samples) One standard deviation equals +/- 1% change in relative cell and module efficiency One standard deviation equals +/- 15% change in CapEx One standard deviation equals +/- 20% change in labor intensity One standard deviation equals +/- 5% Multi-Factor Input Distributions for the US 4000 (0) 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 Factory Gate MSP per Watt ($/W-dc) 0.35 0.36 0.37 change in factory downtime and throughput One standard deviation equals +/- 10% change in factory production volume NREL 18

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