Solar Industry Update slide image

Solar Industry Update

Executive Summary Global Solar Deployment H1 2023 PV installations increased significantly (y/y) in China (153%) and Germany (102%), and to a lesser extent the United States (34%). Australian and Indian first PV installations in H1 2023 shrank modestly, y/y. U.S. PV Deployment EIA projects the percentage of U.S. electric capacity additions from solar will grow from 45% in 2022 (17 GWac) to 56% in 2023 (31 GWac) and 62% (41 GWac) in 2024. • The United States installed 11.2 GWac (11.8 GWdc) of PV in H1 2023-its largest H1 ever-up 44% y/y. ⚫ The United States installed approximately 7.7 GWh (2.5 GW ac) of energy storage onto the electric grid in H1 2023, +32% (+8%) y/y, as a result of growth in all sectors. PV System and Component Pricing • U.S. PV system and PPA prices have been flat or increased over the past 2 years. . Global polysilicon spot prices rose 35% from late June ($7.84/kg, below the weighted average production cost of $8.2/kg) to early October ($10.55/kg). • Global module prices reached yet another record low, falling 21% between late June and early October to $0.14/Wdc. ⚫ In Q3 2023 (first 2 months), the average U.S. module price ($0.33/Wdc) was down 11% q/q and down 23% y/y, but at a 98% premium over the global spot price for monofacial monocrystalline silicon modules. Global Manufacturing According to Infolink (formerly PV Infolink), the top 10 module manufacturers were responsible for 160 GW (+57% y/y) in H1 2023 and the top 5 cell manufacturers together shipped 84 GW of cells (+49% y/y). • Since the passage of the IRA, more than 240 GW of manufacturing capacity has been announced across the solar supply chain, representing more than 22,000 potential jobs and more than $12 billion in announced investments across 72 new facilities or expansions. • In H1 2023, the U.S. shipped 3.1 GW of PV modules - an increase of 0.8 GW from H1 2022. U.S. PV Imports • The United States imported 25.1 GWdc of PV modules in H1 2023, well over double imports from H1 2022. • Most panels imported were exempt from Section 201 duties and were therefore likely bifacial. A significant number of thin-film modules were also imported. ⚫ 1.5 GW dc of cells were imported in H1 2023, up 28% y/y. • The U.S. is not on pace to reach the 5-GW quota exemption limit for Section 201 tariffs. A list of acronyms and abbreviations is available at the end of the presentation. NREL 3
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