Goldman Sachs Investment Banking Pitch Book
Goldman
Sachs
> Illustrative Status Quo Financial Analysis
Based on 9/21 Case Financial Projections
(US$ in millions, except per share amounts)
Illustrative Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
High unlevered free cash flows during the projection period in the 9/21 Case financial projections drive illustrative DCF
share price values that are greater than that of Opal's current share price
■ The revenue growth rate and operating margin assumptions in the 9/21 Case financial projections would need to be
meaningfully reduced in order to arrive at illustrative DCF values that are more in line with Opal's current share price
FY2015
Revenue
% Growth
EBITDA (Pre-GAAP Adjustments)
% Margin
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Illustrative
Discount Rate
8.0%
11.0%
14.0%
PRELIMINARY CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT-SUBJECT TO CHANGE AFTER FURTHER DILIGENCE AND REVIEW
INVESTMENT BANKING
DIVISION
A in Annual EBIT
Margin vs.
9/21 Case
(5.0)%
(2.5)%
Illustrative
Discount Rate
8.0%
11.0%
14.0 %
FY2013
$57,490
$4,509
80%
$2,219
FY2014
$33.94
25.45
20.61
$59.933
42%
$4,788
80%
$ 2,880
Implied Share Price
Perpetuity Growth Rate
1.5%
$ 39.45
27,94
21.96
18.06
25.43
$63,232
5.5%
$5,451
8.6%
$ 3,443
$38.47
27,35
21.56
3.0 %
$ 48.27
31.37
23.69
$11.62
19.78
27.94
FY2016
$ 66,567
5.3%
$5,872
88%
$3,902
Sensitivity Analysis Assuming a 1.5% Perpetuity Growth Rate
Implied Share Price
Terminal Year & in WC as a % of & in Revenue
10.0%
-%
$39.45
27.94
21.96
20.0 %
$37.49
26.75
21.16
Sensitivity Analysis Assuming a 11% Illustrative Discount Rate and 1.5% Perpetuity Growth Rate
Implied Share Price
Ain Annual Rev. Growth Rate vs. 9/21 Case
(5.01%
(2.5)%
$9.86
$ 10.70
16.49
23.13
FY2017
$ 68,019
22%
$6,005
8.8%
$ 4,299
8.9x
6.5
5.1
FY2018
Implied Terminal Year EBITDA Multiple
Perpetuity Growth Rate
1.5%
11.1 x
7.6
58
6.1x
7.0
$ 69,562
23%
$ 6,099
8.8 %
$4,366
11.1 x
7.6
5.8
Terminal Year
$ 69,562
$6,099
88%
$4,344
Implied Terminal Year EBITDA Multiple
& in Annual Rev. Growth Rate vs. 9/21 Case
(5.0)%
(2.5)%
63x
72
75
10.7 x
7.3
56
3.0%
147 x
92
6.7
Implied Terminal Year EBITDA Multiple
Terminal Year A in WC as a % of A in Revenue
-%
10.0%
<-%
6.5 x
7.3
76
20.0 %
10.3 x
7.1
54
Source: Management and company reports
Note: The illustrative discounted cash flow analysis discounts cash flows to 2013 fiscal year end and assumes management's non-GAAP tax rate estimate of 21.0%. Assuming excess
offshore cash of $7.0 billion is repatriated and subject to a 35% tax rate, the impact on implied share price is an approximate reduction of approximately $1.40View entire presentation