Maersk Investor Presentation Deck
Guidance
Guidance for 2020 still suspended
A.P. Moller-Maersk suspended the full-year guidance for 2020 (EBITDA
before restructuring and integration costs of around USD 5.5bn) on 20
March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which is leading to material
uncertainties and lack of visibility related to the global demand for
container transport and logistics.
The high uncertainties related to the outlook and impact from COVID-19
still persist and therefore the suspension of the full year guidance on
EBITDA remains.
Significant contraction in global demand is expected for Q2, with volumes
expected to decrease by 20-25% across all businesses affecting both the
profitability and cash flow in the quarter.
The global market growth in demand for containers is expected to contract
in 2020 due to COVID-19 (previously between 1-3% growth). Organic
volume growth in Ocean is expected to be in line with or slightly lower than
the average market growth.
The accumulated guidance on gross capital expenditures excl. acquisitions
(CAPEX) for 2020-2021 is still expected to be USD 3.0-4.0bn, with steps
being taken to reduce CAPEX in 2020. High cash conversion (cash flow
from operations compared to EBITDA) is expected for both years.
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Q1 2020 interim report
Sensitivity guidance
A.P. Moller - Maersk's financial performance for the full-year 2020
depends on several factors and are subject to uncertainties related to
the COVID-19, bunker fuel prices and freight rates combined with the
weaker macroeconomic conditions and other external factors.
Based on the expected earnings level and all else being equal, the
sensitivities for the rest of 2020 for four key assumptions are listed in
the table below:
Factors
Container freight rate
Container freight volume
Bunker price
(net of expected BAF coverage)
Rate of exchange
(net of hedges)
Change
+/- 100 USD/FFE
+/- 100,000 FFE
+/- 100 USD/tonne
+/- 10% change in USD
Effect on
EBITDA
(Rest of year)
+/- USD 1.0bn
+/- USD 0.1bn
-/+ USD 0.3bn
+/- USD 0.1bn
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