Maersk Investor Presentation Deck
Guidance
Guidance for 2020
A.P. Moller-Maersk suspended the full-year guidance for 2020 (EBITDA before
restructuring and integration costs of around USD 5.5bn) on 20 March 2020 due to
the COVID-19 pandemic, given material uncertainties and lack of visibility related to
the global demand for container transport and logistics.
Despite the uncertainties related to COVID-19, A.P. Moller-Maersk reinstates its full-
year guidance for 2020 and expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortisation (EBITDA) to be between USD 6.0bn-7.0bn before restructuring and
integration costs.
The global demand growth for containers is still expected to contract in 2020 due to
COVID-19 and for Q3 2020 volumes are expected to progressively recover with a
current expectation of a mid-single digit contraction. Organic volume growth in
Ocean is expected to be in line with or slightly lower than the average market growth.
The outlook and guidance for 2020 is subject to significant uncertainties related to
the COVID-19 pandemic and does not take into consideration a material second
lockdown phase. The guidance is also subject to uncertainties related to freight rates,
bunker prices and other external factors.
The accumulated guidance on gross capital expenditures excl. acquisitions (CAPEX)
for 2020-2021 is still expected to be USD 3.0-4.0bn, with steps being taken to
reduce CAPEX in 2020. High cash conversion (cash flow from operations compared
to EBITDA) is still expected for both years.
22
Q2 2020 interim report
Sensitivity guidance
A.P. Moller - Maersk's financial performance for the full-year 2020 depends
on several factors and is subject to uncertainties related to COVID-19, bunker
fuel prices and freight rates combined with the weaker macroeconomic
conditions and other external factors.
Based on the expected earnings level and all else being equal, the sensitivities
for the rest of 2020 for four key assumptions are listed in the table below:
Factors
Container freight rate
Container freight volume
Bunker price
of expected BAF coverage)
Rate of exchange
of hedges)
(net
(net
Change
+/- 100 USD/FFE
+/- 100,000 FFE
+/- 100 USD/tonne
+/- 10% change in USD
Effect on
EBITDA
(Rest of year)
+/- USD 0.6bn
+/- USD 0.1bn
-/+ USD 0.2bn
+/- USD 0.1bn
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