Engine No. 1 Activist Presentation Deck
ExxonMobil may currently be a good trade, but long-term
goal should be becoming a good investment
ā
$ millions
While its stock has risen recently partially due to commodity price recovery,
ExxonMobil's down-cycles have declined over the past 15 years, and future
mid-cycle earnings are expected to fall below historical down-cycle performance
ExxonMobil's "original definitive strategy of being immune to market vagaries is dead."
Paul Sankey, Sankey Research, Dec. 29, 2020
55,000
45,000
35,000
25,000
15,000
5,000
(5,000)
2005
2006
Structurally Declining Earnings...
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021E
2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
Great
Recession
110
Net Income
Energy
Supply &
Downturn Demand Shocks
Capital Expenditures
...... Historical Brent Prices
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Brent Price ($/bbl)
$ millions
...With Worsening Down-Cycles
25,000
15,000
5,000
(5,000)
2009
Great
Recession
Source: 2020 excludes one-time asset impairment expenses. Net Income projections (2021E - 2025E) are Bloomberg consensus. Capex Projections per
ExxonMobil guidance ($20-25bn 2022 2025). Historical Brent Price actuals per Goldman Sachs. Quote Source: Christopher Helman quoting Paul Sankey of
Sankey Research (Dec. 29, 2020). Forbes Energy Awards 2020: NextEra Energy, Bigger Than Exxon, Greener Than Tesla. Forbes.
2016
Energy
Downturn
2020
Supply &
Demand Shocks
REENERGIZE
EXXON//
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