Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
AMGP DCF Analysis | AR Downside Volumes Case
AMGP with Series B Value Conversion | Valuation Effective Date: 6/30/2018
Discounted Levered DCF(1) Analysis
Distributions Attributable to IDR, LLC | Before Series B Payments
Discount Rate
HoldCo DCF
Discount Factor
10.0%
PV of GP FCF
12.0%
14.0x
$21.51
$20.25
$19.10
2H 2018E
Discounted Levered DCF(1) Analysis
Supplemental Calculation Detail
$53
0.976
2022E CAFD Multiple
$52
16.0x
$24.13
$22.71
$21.41
2019E
$169
0.909
$154
2020E
$231
0.826
$191
Disc. IDR Distribution Total
Terminal Multiple
Terminal Disc. Factor
Implied Terminal Value Enterprise Value
Less Net Debt / Corp. Adjustments
Implied Equity Value
AMGP Shares 0/S (Inclusive of 18.5mm Series B Conversion Shares)
Implied Equity Value per Share
18.0x
$26.76
$25.18
$23.72
2021E
$287
0.751
$216
2022E
$352
$613
0.716
$4,645
(5)
$4,650
204.7
$22.71
Discounted Distribution Analysis | Pre-Series B Payment
AMGP Distributions | 1.0x Coverage | SQ AM Distribution Policy
Discount Rate
8.0%
10.0%
12.00
(2)
Adj. GP Dist. Per Share
Discount Factor
PV of GP Dist. per Share
7.0%
$21.86
Source: Management projections and FacBet as of 8/20/2018.
(1) AMGP discounted IDR distribution defined as HoldCo DCF with Series B payments added back in. Discounted cost of equity at 10.08.
Adj. GP distribution per share calculated as (AWGP DCF Series B payment added back) / (fully diluted AWGP shares outstanding + 18.5mm converted Series B units).
$20.58
$19.40
Disc. Adj. Dist. Total
Terminal Yield
Terminal Disc. Factor
Implied Terminal Value per Share
Implied Equity Value per Share
Discounted Distribution Analysis
Supplemental Calculation Detail
2H 2018E
50.26
0.976
50.26
2022E Distribution Yield
5.5%
$26.97
$25.38
$23.90
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
2019E
$0.83
0.909
$0.75
2020E
$1.13
0.826
$0.93
$35.92
$33.77
$31.78
2021E
$1,40
0.751
$1.05
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&CO
MERCHANT BANKING
2022E
$1.72
$3.00
5.5%
0.716
$22.38
$25.38
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