Morgan Stanley Investment Banking Pitch Book
Morgan Stanley
2 Discounted Equity Value - Based on CY2025E Revenue
Street and Management Cases; Value at 12/31/2024 Discounted to 9/12/2022 (1)(2)(5)
SMM, Except Where Noted
2025E Revenue
2025E Multiple
Implied Future AV
Proj. Cash
(-) Pro. Total Debt
Future Equity Value
Current FDSO
Annual Basic Share Increase
Future FDSO
Future Price per Share
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Discount Period (Years)
Price Per Share NPV
3 Month Performance
12 Month Performance
AV/NTM Multiple
Current
NTM
Multiple
8.8x
@$19.41
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
11.0x
12.0x
13.0x
14.0x
Historical NTM
AV / Revenue Multiple
0%
18%
7%
4%
0%
0%
0%
13%
0%
13%
15%
14%
10%
18%
15%
33%
45%
Street Case
585
8.0x
$4,679
576
0
$5,255
185.1
08%
189.5
$27.73
Implied Fully-Diluted Future
Share Price (at Dec 2024)
Street Case
$585
18%
$21.59
$24.66
$27.73
$30.80
$33.87
$36.95
$40.02
Management Case
697
80x
$5,578
619
0
$6,196
185.1
1.0%
190 5
$32.52
$43.09
$46.16
CY2025E Revenue, Margin
$697
26%
$25.23
Notes
1. Market data and consensus as of 9/12/2022
2. Management reflects forecast provided by Management on 8/12/2022
3. Assumes future cash balance as of 12/31/2024 of $582MM in Street Case and $619MM in Management Case
PROJECT ORANGE
(3X4)
Management Case
$28.88
$32.52
$36.16
$39.81
$43.45
$47.09
$50.74
Discounted 2.3
Years at 12.3% Cost
of Equity
Street Case
PRELIMINARY AND CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
12.3%
2.30
$21.24
$16.53
$18.89
$21.24
$23.59
$25.94
$28.29
$30.65
$33.00
$54.38
$35.35
4. Cost of equity of 12.3% based on 1.49 Barra predicted beta, 3.4 % risk-free rate and 6.0% market risk premium
5. Current FDSO based on implied share price, represents annualized increase in basic shares through 12/31/2023
6. Share creep calculated based on projected cumulative SBC divided by current share price to determine CAGR over the period
2022 to 2025
Management Case
Street Case
12.3%
2.30
$24.90
Discounted Fully-Diluted
Future Share Price
Management Case
$19.32
$22.11
$24.90
$27.69
$30.49
$33.28
$36.07
$38.86
$41.65
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