Pershing Square Activist Presentation Deck
B. PF McDonald's Financial Analysis
Set forth herein are
the assumptions for
the Pro Forma
McDonald's
business.
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Pro Forma McDonald's: Model Key Drivers
Net Unit Growth
■ Approximates 1.5% - 2.0% of total franchise system unit growth annually or 1.0% - 1.5% of systemwide unit growth
Revenue drivers:
■ Average systemwide same-store sales CAGR of -2.5% annually
■
Rental revenue from franchisees of 9.0% of franchise & affiliated system sales
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Rental revenue from McOpCo of 9.0% of McOpCo sales
Franchise revenue from franchisees of 4.0% of franchise & affiliated system sales
Franchise revenue from McOpCo of 4.0% of McOpCo sales
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Cost drivers:
■ Franchise rental expense based on a historical % of rental revenue from franchisees
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McOpCo rental expense based on a historical % of rental revenue from McOpCo
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D&A calculated assuming a 20-year useful life for existing net depreciable PP&E of approximately $12.5 billion
(excluding land), and a 20-year useful life for depreciable PP&E purchased in the future
75% of SG&A allocated to Pro Forma McDonald's
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Net CapEx drivers:
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Other
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All CapEx is net of proceeds received from store closures
$1.3 million of CapEx for each new unit where Pro Forma McDonald's owns the land and the building in 2005 and 2006,
growing at an inflationary rate of 2.0% thereafter
$650K million of CapEx for each new unit where Pro Forma McDonald's owns the building but not the land in 2005 and
2006, growing at an inflationary rate of 2.0% thereafter
Run-rate maintenance CapEx of approximately $320 million, implying approximately $10K per system wide unit,
growing at 2%
Allocation of 75% of consolidated McDonald's corporate CapEx
Consolidated corporate CapEx held constant at 0.7% of sales
Incremental total debt of $9.7 billion, resulting in total debt of approximately $14.8 billion (net debt of $14.65bn)
Free cash used to buy back shares and pay dividends
$150 mm minimum cash balance
Tax rate of 32%
Minimal working capital requirements
25% Debt to Cap ratio increasing to 30% in 2008
Assumes an illustrative 30% dividend payout ratio to match current consolidated McDonald's
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