Modeling with New Disclosures Linking Price & Drivers to Financial Results
Phosphates finished products
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Product mix
DAP/MAP product relative prices can vary based on geographic supply / demand considerations.
India is primarily a DAP market, while Brazil is primarily a MAP market.
Micro Essentials is a MAP based product, with finished product prices closely tied to MAP prices.
The company has significant flexibly in the manufacturing mix between MAP, DAP and MicroEssentials
In the short term, 87% of cash conversion costs are fixed.
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Relative Product costs
DAP contains more ammonia than MAP. On average, Mosaic uses .18 tonnes of NH3 per tonne of finished product.
MAP contains more phosphoric acid, generally 52% P₂O5 vs. 46% for DAP.
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MicroEssentials contains less phosphoric acid, averaging 41% depending upon the product mix, but contains incremental micronutrients.
All product revenues are based on delivered prices, and both revenues and COGS include transport costs.
Market vs. Realized DAP prices
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1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
Jan 17
Jul 17
Jan 18
Jul 18
Realized Price Index
Jan 19
Jul 19
Jan 20
NOLA Barge Price Index
Jul 20
Based on 2019 and 2020 monthly averages:
Logistics costs / tonne = $42, fairly stable
Days lag pricing to revenue recognition:
Average = 38
Range 20 to 55
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Lag varies with seasonality and sentiment. The pace of
buying and delivery increases when prices are rising.
Mosaic
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