Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
AMGP DCF Analysis | AR Base Volumes Case CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AMGP with Series B Value Conversion | Valuation Effective Date: 6/30/2018
Discounted Levered DCF(1) Analysis
Distributions Attributable to IDR, LLC | Before Series B Payments
Discount Rate
HoldCo DCF
10.0%
Discount Factor
PV of GP FCF
12.0%
14.0x
$27.09
$25.50
$24.03
2H 2018E
2022E CAFD Multiple
$61
0.976
$60
Discounted Levered DCF(1) Analysis
Supplemental Calculation Detail
16.0x
$30.44
$28.64
$26.98
2019E
$178
0.909
$162
2020E
$270
0.826
$223
Disc. IDR Distribution Total
Terminal Multiple
Terminal Disc. Factor
Implied Terminal Value Enterprise Value
Less Net Debt / Corp. Adjustments
Implied Equity Value
AMGP Shares 0/5 (Inclusive of 18.5mm Series B Conversion Shares)
Implied Equity Value per Share
18.0x
$33.79
$31.79
$29.93
2021E
$352
0.751
2022E
$710
16.0x
0.716
$5,858
(5)
$5,863
204.7
$28.64
Discounted Distribution Analysis | Pre-Series B Payment
AMGP Distributions | 1.0x Coverage | SQ AM Distribution Policy
Discount Rate
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
(2)
Adj. GP Dist. Per Share
Discount Factor
PV of GP Dist. per Share
7.0%
$27.54
Source: Management projections and FacBet as of 8/30/2018.
(1) AMGP discounted DCF defined as HoldCo DCF with Series B payments added back in. Discounted cost of equity at 10.08.
Adj. GP distribution per share calculated as (AMGP DCF Series B payment added back) / (fully diluted AMGP shares outstanding + 18.5mm converted Series & units).
$25.92
$24.43
Disc. Adj. Dist. Total
Terminal Yield
Terminal Disc. Factor
Implied Terminal Value per Share
Implied Equity Value per Share
2022E Distribution Yield
$0.30
0.976
50.29
Discounted Distribution Analysis
Supplemental Calculation Detail
2H 2018E
5.5%
$34.07
$32.05
$30.18
2019E
$0.87
0.909
$0.79
2020E
$1.32
0.826
$1.09
4.0%
$45.50
$42.76
$40.24
2021E
$1.72
0.751
$1.29
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COCHANT BANKING
PINTA
2022E
$2.20
$3.47
5.5%
0.716
$28.58
$32.05
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